| 摘要: |
| ［目的］近几年来，山东棉花生产严重衰退，同时伴生棉花生产布局的大幅调整和集中。需进一步探明相同的外部市场环境和类似的产业发展条件下，山东棉花衰退与集中的缘由。［方法］利用1995年、2005年、2015年山东主要植棉县的生产统计资料，计算规模优势指数、单产优势指数、集中度优势指数、综合优势指数，并对比测算结果与现实集中情况的匹配程度，证实山东省棉花生产的区域布局在不断优化，棉花生产逐渐向比较优势县（区）集中。［结果］山东棉花生产的衰退与集中符合区域棉花生产的比较优势，是农民根据棉花生产的市场机会、比较优势（古典比较优势和内生比较优势）和市场深化的宏观经济环境做出的理性选择。［结论］今后山东的棉花生产应有进有退，在生产优势县（区）实施更具针对性的棉花支持政策，加强对鲁西北盐碱地棉花育种与栽培技术的科研支持，缩小因自然因素导致的产量缺口，争取让国家目标价格政策覆盖到省内三大棉花优势区域，并在黄河三角洲设立国家级棉花生产保护区。 |
| 关键词: 棉花生产衰退与集中比较优势综合优势指数山东 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F207 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“黄河中下游盐碱地棉花种植的生态价值评估及补偿机制研究”（71603152）； 山东省现代农业产业技术体系棉花产业经济岗位专家项目（SDAIT 03 10） |
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| THE RECESSION AND CONCENTRATION OF COTTON PRODUCTION IN SHANDONG PROVINCE*——AN ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK OF COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE |
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Cui Aiqin, Han Ruobing, Hu Jilian
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Faculty of Economics and Management，Shandong Agricultural University，Tai′an, Shandong 100081, China
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| Abstract: |
| In recent years, cotton production in Shandong province suffers severe recession, together with large adjustment and concentration of cotton production layout. This research aims to further explore the reasons for the decline and concentration of cotton in Shandong province under the same external market environment and similar industrial development conditions. Based on the production statistics of the main cotton producing counties in Shandong in 1995, 2005 and 2015, it calculated the scale advantage index, the efficiency advantage index, the concentration advantage index and the comprehensive advantage index of cotton production, and then compared and analyzed the matching degree (matching ratio) of the comprehensive advantage index calculation results and the actual concentration results, which proved that the regional distribution of cotton production in Shandong was continuously superior. And cotton production was gradually concentrated in the comparative advantage counties (districts).The results showed that the recession and concentration of Shandong cotton production conformed to the comparative advantage of cotton production. It was a rational choice made by farmers based upon the market opportunity, comparative advantage (the classical comparative advantage & the endogenous comparative advantage) of cotton production, as well as market deepening of macro economic environment. As to Shandong cotton production in future, there will be rising and falling. Specific cotton supportive policies should be introduced in comparative advantageous counties and districts. Research support should be enhanced in saline alkali soil cotton breeding and cultivation in north west Shandong province, and reduce the output gap caused by natural factors, so that hopefully national target price policy will cover the three cotton advantageous zones within Shandong province and national cotton production protection zone will be established in Yellow River Delta. |
| Key words: cotton production recession and concentration comparative advantage composite advantage index Shandong |
