| 摘要: |
| ［目的］河北省乡村雷电灾害损失严重，开展河北省乡村雷电灾害风险区划研究对于风险管理具有重要意义。［方法］文章利用2010—2016年河北省闪电定位网观测数据、河北省统计年鉴及2014—2016年全国雷电灾害汇编资料，选取地闪密度和最大地闪强度表征雷灾危险性，乡村用电量及乡村家电拥有量表征雷灾脆弱性。采用风险矩阵方法，得到河北省各区县行政单元风险估算值。［结果］河北省乡村雷灾极高风险区位于秦皇岛南部昌黎县、唐山东北部迁安市以及保定南部定州市，将风险区划结果与2014年乡村雷灾频次分布对比发现，乡村雷电多灾区和该文的高风险区有较高的重合度。［结论］风险区划结果可为河北省有关部门乡村雷电防灾减灾规划提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 河北省乡村雷电灾害风险区划雷灾频次风险矩阵 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P446 |
| 基金项目:河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室开放基金项目“不同空间尺度的河北省气象灾害风险评估模型研究”（Z201603H）； 国家重点研发计划支持项目“山洪灾害动态预警与风险评估平台构建”（2017YFC1502505） |
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| RESEARCH ON LIGHTNING DISASTER RISK ZONING IN THE RURAL AREAS OF HEBEI PROVINCE |
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Long Shuang1,3, Yu Haiyang5, Li Ting5, Li Qian1,3, Zou Zhixiao4, Wang Ying1,2,3, Xu Yingjun1,2,3※
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1. Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;3.Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;4.School of Statistics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; 5. Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention Center, Shijiazhuang, Hebei 050021, China
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| Abstract: |
| Lightning disaster risk zoning is important for risk management considering huge loss claimed by lighting disasters in the rural areas of Hebei province. Data used included the observation of the lightning locating network from 2010 to 2016, statistical yearbook of Hebei province, and compiled national lightning disaster data from 2014 to 2016. Cloud to ground(CG) lightning density and the maximum of CG lightning intensity were used to characterize the hazard. The rural electricity consumption and the amount of household appliances ownership were selected to represent the vulnerability. Risk matrix approach was applied to obtain risk estimates by county level administrative unit in Hebei province. The results showed that Changli county in the south of Qinhuangdao, Qian′an city in the northeast of Tangshan, and Dingzhou city in the south of Baoding, were of the highest risk. High risk regions in the zonation result were highly consistent with the frequency distribution of rural lightning disasters in 2014. The results of risk zoning can provide a scientific basis for lightning disaster prevention and mitigation planning in rural areas of Hebei province. |
| Key words: Hebei province rural lightning hazard risk zoning lightning disaster frequency risk matrix |
