| 摘要: |
| ［目的］当前马铃薯生产与需求不平衡，价格波动剧烈时有发生，探索马铃薯价格波动的主要影响因子，开展马铃薯价格分析及预测，对于马铃薯市场稳定和薯农增收具有重要的理论意义及政策意义。［方法］采用主成分回归、VAR模型和符号回归3种方法分别对马铃薯价格波动的影响因子进行了分析，以拟合优度最高的符号回归方程作为马铃薯价格预测模型，对马铃薯价格走势进行了预判。［结果］主成分回归分析结果表明马铃薯价格波动主要受到消费端因素的影响，VAR模型结果表明马铃薯价格波动主要受到生产端因素的影响，符号回归结果则表明马铃薯价格波动受到生产端因素和消费端因素的共同影响。预测结果表明， 2016—2025年我国马铃薯实际价格依次为056、046、058、060、054、054、058、056、062和054元/kg，名义价格依次是134、114、144、156、146、152、174、174、200和182元/kg。［结论］马铃薯价格波动是生产端和消费端多种因子综合作用的结果，其中影响较为显著的因素依次为：消费替代品价格、社会经济发展水平、生产成本、上一期价格、生产替代品价格等； 2016—2025年我国马铃薯实际价格将在波动中趋稳，名义价格将在波动中略增。 |
| 关键词: 马铃薯价格波动影响因子价格模型价格走势分析 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F32611 |
| 基金项目:国家马铃薯产业技术体系项目（CARS 10） |
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| QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF POTATO PRICE FLUCTUATION IN CHINA |
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Zhang Meng, Gao Mingjie, Luo Qiyou
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Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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| Abstract: |
| The contradiction between potato production and market has become increasingly serious, and the fluctuation of its price is more remarkably. To explore the main determinants of potato price fluctuation, make an analysis and forecast of potato price has important significance in stabilizing potato market and increasing farmers′ income. The determinants of potato price fluctuation were analyzed by principle component regression, VAR model and symbolic regression, and the price trend of potatoes was predicted by the the potato price forecasting model based on the symbolic regression equation with the highest goodness of fit. The principal component regression result showed that, potato price fluctuation was mainly affected by the consumption side factors. The VAR model result showed that, potato price fluctuation was mainly affected by the production side factors. The symbol regression result showed that, potato price fluctuation was mainly affected by the consumption side and production side factors. The prediction results showed that the actual potato price would be 0.56, 0.46, 0.58, 0.60, 0.54, 0.54, 0.58, 0.56, 0.62 and 0.54 yuan per kg and the nominal price would be 1.34, 1.14, 1.44, 1.56, 1.46, 1.52, 1.74, 1.74, 2.00 and 1.82 yuan per kg in 2016-2025.Therefore, potato price fluctuation is the result of various factors from production and consumption, which is significantly influenced by consuming substitute prices, social economic development level, production cost, previous price, producing substitute prices and so on. The actual potato price will stabilize and nominal price will increase slightly in 2016-2025. |
| Key words: potato price fluctuation determinants price prediction model price trend forecast |
