| 摘要: |
| ［目的］食用菌规模化生产的快速发展对传统的菇农生产活动产生了深刻影响，其中一些菇农已经暂停或放弃生产，而其他菇农则采取了改变规模、改变品种、改善技术及与工厂化企业合作等生产调整措施以避免或减少潜在风险。文章运用河南省泌阳、西峡两个香菇生产大县的实地调查数据，从理性预期视角探索影响专业菇农继续生产意愿的主要因素，为研究规模化农业与传统小农户家庭生产方式之间的关系提供参考。［方法］采用二元Probit模型结合边际效应分析，分别从成本预期、收益预期和风险预期等3个方面，探索食用菌规模化生产迅速发展背景下菇农理性预期对其继续生产意愿的影响。［结果］实证结果显示，绝大多数样本菇农在规模化快速发展背景下愿意继续进行香菇生产； 菇农继续生产的总体风险预期和总体机会预期、菇农生产方式被替代预期、年参加培训次数、工厂化企业工作经历等对菇农继续生产意愿影响显著； 设施设备改造投入增加预期、产品滞销风险增加预期、继续生产的利润下降预期、文化程度、自制还是购买菌棒、年栽培棒数、贷款资金需求等因素的影响比较显著。［结论］菇农能够相对充分地认识到食用菌规模化生产方式所带来的风险和机会，进而通过主动学习来改进现有的菇农家庭生产方式，而不是直接退出生产； 政府部门和金融机构等对以菇农为代表的专业化小农户的专项扶持，对于探索小农户与现代农业有机衔接的内源方式、实现农户家庭生产方式的历史跃迁具有重要意义。 |
| 关键词: 规模化生产菇农理性预期生产意愿Probit模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F32613 |
| 基金项目:国家食用菌产业技术体系专项（CARS 20）； 国家重点研发项目“化肥农药减施增效技术效果监测与评估研究”（2016YFD0201300）； 河南省软科学项目“乡村振兴战略下河南农业生态补偿政策研究——基于政府财政和农户福利的双重约束”（192400410078） |
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| ANALYSIS OF LENTINUS EDODES FARMER′S WILLINGNESS TO CONTINUE PRODUCTION UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE SCALE PRODUCTION*——BASED ON THE INVESTIGATION OF BIYANG COUNTY AND XIXIA COUNTY IN HENAN PROVINCE |
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Geng Li1, Wei Lili1,2, Yu Yang1, Wu Yiping1※, Shen Jinwen3
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College of Economics and Management, Henan Agriculture University, Zhengzhou, Henan 450046, China; 2. Rural Energy＆Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China; 3. College of Life Science, Henan Agriculture University, Zhengzhou, Henan 450002, China
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| Abstract: |
| The rapid development of large scale production of edible fungi has a profound impact on the traditional production activities of lentinus edodes farmers. For example, some of them have suspended or given up the production, while others have taken production adjustment measures such as adjusting their production scale, changing varieties, improving cultivation technology, or cooperating with factory enterprises to avoid or reduce the potential risks. Based on the data from field survey of two major edible fungi producing areas in Biyang county and Xixia county of Henan province, this paper attempts to explore the main factors affecting the willingness of specialized smallholders of lentinus edodes production in order to provide reference on the research of relationship between scale agricultural production and traditional smallholder production from the perspective of rational expectation. Using binary probit model and combining marginal effect analysis, this paper explored the impact of rational expectation on smallholders′ willingness to continue lentinus edodes production with the rapid development of industrialized production mode of edible fungus based on cost expectation, income expectation and risk expectation, respectively. The empirical results showed that: (i) The vast majority of the surveyed lentinus edodes farmers wanted to continue letinous edodes production under the background of rapid development of large scale and industrialized production; (ii) The overall risk expectation, the overall opportunity expectation, the substitutable expectation of production mode, the annual training frequency, and the working experience in industrialized edible fungi enterprises had significant impacts on the lentinus edodes farmers′ willingness to continue their production; (iii) The following variables had relatively significant impacts: expectation of investment increase in facilities and equipment renovation, the expectation of risk increase in unsalable product, the expectation of profits decline from continued production, and some personal characteristics such as education level, home made or purchased lentinus edodes rods, annual cultivated rods scale and the demand for loan funds. This paper suggests that: (i)The lentinus edodes farmers could more adequately recognize the risks and opportunities brought by the large scale production of edible fungi, and improve small household production mode through active learning rather than directly giving up the existing production mode;(ii) The support measures targeted on the representatives of the specialized lentinus edodes small farmers from relevant government departments and financing institutions have important policy implications on the exploring the organic connection between the small holders and modern agriculture production and deeply realizing the historical transition of household production mode in modern China. |
| Key words: large scale production lentinus edodes farmers rational expectation production willingness Probit model |
