| 摘要: |
| ［目的］开展连片特困区脆弱生态环境和贫困耦合关系的演变及预测模拟研究，为研究区统筹扶贫开发与生态环境保护提供政策依据。［方法］通过构建生态环境和贫困评价体系，运用系统耦合模型和GM（1，1）预测模型，对1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年研究区脆弱生态环境与贫困耦合关系演变进行了分析，并对2020年、2025年、2030年、2035年、2040年研究区两系统耦合关系进行了预测模拟。［结果］（1）1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年河北连片特困区贫困度指数呈下降趋势，由0902下降到0761，生态环境脆弱性指数略有下降，由0438下降到0412。（2）1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年河北连片特困区贫困和生态环境耦合类型由拮抗时期过渡到磨合阶段，协调类型由轻度失调型转变为濒临衰退型。低水平耦合县主要分布集中在太行山北部山区，耦合协调度呈现“两头高、中间低”的分布特征，北部燕山山区和南部太行山山区各县耦合协调度普遍较高。（3）2020年、2025年、2030年、2035年、2040年研究区域生态环境脆弱性指数和贫困度指数都在降低，两者的耦合度在不断提高，耦合类型处于磨合阶段，接近于高水平耦合，耦合协调度在不断降低，协调类型由濒临衰退型过渡到勉强协调型。［结论］快速提高片区经济发展水平是片区生态环境与经济协调发展的关键。 |
| 关键词: 脆弱生态环境贫困耦合连片特困区演变 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:F3299； P96 |
| 基金项目:河北省软科学研究专项“环京津贫困带农民增收与生态环境质量冲突时空演变及协调发展路径研究”（184576456）； 河北省自然科学基金资助项目“基于多元Logistic回归与CLUE-S模型的坝上高原生态用地演变驱动机制与布局优化模拟研究”（D2018302014）； 河北省科学院科技攻关项目（20107） |
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| RESEARCH OF EVOLUTION AND SIMULATION OF COUPLING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECOLOGICAL QULNERABILITY AND POVERTY IN CONTIGUOUS DESTITUTE AREAS IN HEBEI PROVINCE |
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Wu Aibin1,2,3, Zhao Yanxia1,2※
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1.Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050011, Hebei, China;2. Hebei Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information Application, Shijiazhuang 050011, Hebei, China;3. Beijimg Forestry University，College of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing 100083, China
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| Abstract: |
| Analysis of the evolution of the coupling relationship between vulnerable ecological environments and poverty in contiguous destitute areas can provide a foundation for the development of policy and for the overall planning of poverty alleviation in the research area. In this research, we analyzed the evolution of the coupling relationship between vulnerable ecological environments and poverty in the study area from 1995 to 2015 by establishing an evaluation system of ecological environment and poverty, and the coupling relationship between the two systems in the study area from 2020 to 2040 was predicted and simulated by using the system coupling model and GM (1,1) prediction model. The results showed that: (1) From 1995 to 2015, the poverty index of contiguous poverty stricken areas in Hebei, declined from 0.902 to 0.761, and the ecological environment vulnerability index also declined slightly, from 0.438 to 0.412.(2) From 1995 to 2015, the type of coupling between poverty and ecological environment in contiguous poverty stricken areas in Hebei changed from an antagonistic period to a running in period, and the type of coordination changed from mild imbalance to on the verge of decline. Counties with low level coupling were found to be mainly distributed in the northern Taihang Mountains. The degree of coupling coordination was high at both ends and low in the middle. The degree of coupling coordination of the counties in the northern Yanshan Mountains and the southern Taihang Mountains was generally high. (3) The eco environment vulnerability index and poverty index in the study area were both predicted to show a decreasing trend from 2020 to 2040. The coupling degree of the two showed a continuous improvement. The coupling type was in the running in stage, close to high level coupling. The degree of coupling coordination showed a continuously decreasing trend. The type of coordination changed from verge of decline type to barely coordinated type. It concludes that the key to the coordinated development of ecological environment and economy in the region is to rapidly improve the economic development of the region. |
| Key words: vulnerable ecological environment poverty coupling contiguous destitute areas evolution |
