张家口季节变化特征及其对农业的影响

Climate characteristic of seasonal variation and its influence on agriculture in Zhangjiakou

关键词:  张家口  季节变化  农业

Key words:  Zhang Jiakou  seasonal change  agriculture

摘要:

目的 分析张家口地区季节变化特征及其对农业的影响，为当地农业结构布局、农业气象服务提供科学依据。方法 基于1965—2014年张家口地区14个站点逐日气象资料，采用5d滑动平均、气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall和滑动t检验方法分析四季开始日与长度的变化特征，并结合相关分析等方法研究了季节变化对农作物的影响。结果 近50年来，张家口地区春夏季开始日提前、秋冬季开始日推迟；坝上地区春季和坝下地区夏季日数呈现显著延长趋势，坝上和坝下地区冬季日数均呈显著缩短趋势，秋季长度变化趋势不明显；突变分析得到坝下地区夏季开始日在1980年和1992年发生突变，秋、冬开始日则分别在1982年、2011年发生突变，坝下地区春季开始日和坝上地区四季开始日均无有效突变。结论 春季提前，秋季推后，使得农作物适宜生长期延长，大于等于10℃活动积温增加，同时增加了作物遭受倒春寒的频次和生产的不稳定性。

Abstract:

Purpose The analysis of the climate characteristic of seasonal change and its influence on agriculture in Zhangjiakou can provide a scientific basis for local agricultural structure layout and agrometeorological services.Method Based on the daily data from 14 meteorological stations in Zhangjiakou during the period from 1965 to 2014，this paper used 5-day overlapping mean air temperature，climate trending rate，Mann-Kendall and moving t-test methods to analyze the variation features of starting data and length of seasons and studied its effects on crops through combining correlation analysis methods.Result In recent 50 years，the starting dates of spring and summer come earlier，but autumn and winter come later. The length of spring in Bashang area and the summer in Baxia area were notably prolonged，but the winter was significantly shortened. The trend of autumn is not obvious. The abrupt change analysis showed that there was abrupt change in 1980 and 1992 of the starting dates of summer，autumn in1982 and winter in 2011 in Baxia area. But there is no abrupt change of the starting dates of spring in Baxia area and the starting dates of each season in the Bashang area.Conclusion The fact that spring comes earlier but autumn comes later prolongs the suitable growth period of crops，increases the active accumulated temperature above 10℃，and increases the frequency of late spring coldness and the instability of crop production.