| 摘要: |
| 【目的】通过对苹果价格典型波动周期分析，研究其价格波动特征，并分析影响价格 波动的主要因素，从而提高苹果价格的稳定性，增加果农收入，保障居民对苹果的正常消 费，促进苹果产业的健康稳定发展。【方法】文章以2009年7月至2019年6月全国苹果月 均市场价格为研究对象，使用HP滤波分析法对价格数据进行趋势分解，从苹果价格的季节 性、周期性、随机性对价格进行特征分析和影响因素分析。【结果】苹果季节性价格呈现“U 型”变化趋势，每年2月份为苹果价格的高峰期，每年9月份为苹果价格的低谷期；2009— 2019年苹果价格可划分为6个完整周期和1个不完整周期，以陡降陡升型为主。【结论】近 10年的苹果价格整体上呈现上升趋势，波动周期较为显著，并且具有非对称性和不可重复 性；随机冲击对苹果价格具有一定影响，且呈现出放大的趋势。根据苹果价格波动的周期分 析出苹果的供给和需求对苹果价格起着决定性作用，影响苹果供给的因素主要有苹果产量、 库存量以及进出口量；需求因素主要包括居民的消费偏好及居民的收入水平。 |
| 关键词: 苹果 价格 HP滤波 波动周期 影响因素 |
| DOI：10.12105/j.issn.1672-0423.20190410 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:中国农业科学院山东省农业科学院科技创新工程协同创新任务“智慧农业关键技术与系统集成”（CAASXTCX2018023）；山东省农业科学院农业科技创新工程“精准农业关键技术研究”（CXG2017B04） |
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| Analysis on the characteristics and influencing factors of apple price fluctuation |
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Wu Guojing, Zheng Jiye, Zhao Quan, Liu Bingfu, Wang Fengyun※
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S&T Information Institute of Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Jinan 250100，China
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| Abstract: |
| ［ Purpose］Through the analysis of typical fluctuation cycle of apple price in China，this paper studies the fluctuation characteristics of apple price，and analyses the main factors affecting the fluctuation of apple price，so as to improve the stability of apple price， increase the income of fruit growers，ensure the normal consumption of apples by residents and promote the healthy and stable development of the whole apple industry. ［Method］In this paper，the monthly average market price of apples in China from July 2009 to June 2019 is taken as the research object. The trend decomposition of price data is carried out by using HP filter analysis method. The characteristics and influencing factors of apple price are analyzed from the seasonality，periodicity and randomness of apple price. ［Result］The seasonal trend of apple price is U-shaped，with February as the peak of apple price and September as the trough of apple price. The price of apple in the past decade can be divided into six complete cycles and one incomplete cycle，and the main type is steep fall and steep rise. ［Conclusion］In the recent decade，the price of apple has shown an upward trend overall. The fluctuation period is significant，and it has asymmetry and non-repeatability. Random shocks have a certain impact on the price of apples，and show a magnifying trend. According to the periodic analysis of apple price fluctuation，the supply and demand of apples plays a decisive role in the price of apples. The main factors affecting the supply of apples are apple production，apple stock and the import and export of apples. And the demand factors mainly include consumer preferences of residents and income level. |
| Key words: apple price HP filter fluctuation period influencing factors |
