中国省域粮食产需匹配状况研究

Study on the matching of grain production and demand in different provinces of China

关键词:  粮食安全  粮食产量  区域不均衡  粮食产需比  产需缺口

Key words:  food security  grain production  regional imbalance  ratio of grain production to demand  production and demand gap

摘要:

【目的】 粮食安全是国之大者，在全国粮食供应处于紧平衡状态的背景下，综合分析区域间粮食供需匹配状况，对于保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。【方法】 文章基于国家统计数据、利用通用的折算方法，估算了不同地区的粮食需求总量、粮食产需比和粮食供应缺口等。【结果】 全国粮食供应存在缺口，但口粮供给绝对安全；不同地区粮食需求构成差异显著，饲用粮是大部分地区最主要的粮食消耗路径；全国19地粮食产量难以实现自给自足，地区间产需状况存在失衡；全国1/3地区能够产生余粮，北方地区为粮食安全做出贡献；但从当前粮食供需情况来看，区域粮食产需失衡情况仍整体可控。【结论】 未来应进一步提升我国粮食综合生产能力，加快构建更加完备和系统的粮食生产补偿机制，着力推动全国粮食生产布局优化调整。

Abstract:

【Purpose】 Food security is the top priority of the country. Under the background of tight balance of food supply in the whole country，it is very important to analyze the matching of food supply and demand in different regions.【Method】 Based on the national statistical data and used the general conversion method，this paper estimated the total grain demand，the ratio of grain production to demand and the gap of grain supply in different regions.【Result】 The results showed that there was a gap in the national food supply，but the rations supply was absolutely safe；the composition of grain demand in different regions was significantly different，and forage grain was the main grain consumption path in most regions；grain production in 19 provinces struggled to meet local demand and there was an imbalance between regional production and demand；one-third of the country produced surplus grain and the north contributed to food security；but judging from the current situation of grain supply and demand，the imbalance of regional grain production and demand was still under control as a whole.【Conclusion】 In the future，we should further enhance our country's comprehensive grain production capacity，accelerate the construction of a more complete and systematic grain production compensation mechanism，and push forward the optimization and adjustment of the distribution of grain production.