北京市蔬菜供需平衡研究

Study on the supply and demand balance of vegetables in Beijing

关键词:  蔬菜  供应量  需求量  平衡  北京

Key words:  vegetables  supply  demand  balance  Beijing

摘要:

【目的】 深入研究北京等特大型城市农产品供需平衡情况，服务于特大型城市重要农产品稳产保供。【方法】 文章基于北京市居民蔬菜消费调研数据和全市蔬菜供应长期监测数据，利用系统的折算方法，测算北京市居民蔬菜消费需求量、分析蔬菜市场供应情况，构建蔬菜供需平衡表。【结果】 （1）北京市人均蔬菜消费量为每日1.142 kg，人均每年蔬菜消费量为416.83 kg。（2）北京市蔬菜供应包括本市自产、外埠进京两部分，批发市场是主要的供应渠道。（3）基于蔬菜需求和供应的分析，构建了北京市蔬菜供需平衡表。其中，北京市蔬菜供应中自产蔬菜约占供应总量的12.6%，外埠进京蔬菜约占87.4%；外埠进京蔬菜中批发市场渠道年净供应量约占供应总量的75%；商超电商等约占12%。（4）根据供需动态均衡理论，以北京市流动人口规模100万人测算，北京市每年蔬菜需求量约为950万t，平均每日需求量约为2.6万t。【结论】 为了切实保障北京市居民蔬菜消费安全，需要稳定和提高本地蔬菜生产能力，做好外围蔬菜供应保障，日常监测和重点监测并重，优化蔬菜流通渠道、保障蔬菜消费的便利和安全。

Abstract:

【Purpose】 To conduct in-depth research on the supply and demand balance of agricultural products in mega cities such as Beijing，and serve the stable production and supply of important agricultural products in mega cities.【Method】 Based on the survey data of vegetable consumption among residents in Beijing and long-term monitoring data of vegetable supply in the city，this article used systematic conversion methods to calculate the demand for vegetable consumption among residents in Beijing，analysed the supply situation in the vegetable market，and construct a vegetable supply and demand balance table.【Result】 The per capita vegetable consumption in Beijing was 1.142 kg per day，and the per capita annual vegetable consumption was 416.83 kg.The vegetable supply in Beijing included two parts：locally produced vegetables and non local supply，with wholesale markets being the main supply channels. Based on the analysis of vegetable demand and supply，a balance table of vegetable supply and demand in Beijing was constructed. Among them，self-produced vegetables accounted for about 12.6% of the total supply in Beijing's vegetable supply，while vegetables from outside Beijing accounted for about 87.4%. The annual net supply volume of the wholesale market channels for vegetables entering Beijing from overseas accounted for about 75% of the total supply volume while commercial supermarkets and e-commerce，etc. accounted for about 12%. According to the theory of dynamic balance between supply and demand，based on the scale of Beijing's floating population of 1 million people，the annual demand for vegetables in Beijing was about 9.5 million tons，with an average daily demand of about 26 000 tons.【Conclusion】 In order to effectively ensure the safety of vegetable consumption among residents in Beijing，it is necessary to stabilize and improve the local vegetable production capacity，ensure the supply of peripheral vegetables，pay equal attention to daily monitoring and key monitoring，optimize vegetable circulation channels，and ensure the convenience and safety of vegetable consumption.