数字经济发展、农业产业结构升级与农业碳排放关系研究

Research on the relationship between digital economy development，agricultural industrial structure upgrading and agricultural carbon emissions

关键词:  数字经济  农业产业结构升级  农业碳排放  联立方程模型

Key words:  digital economy  the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure  agricultural carbon emissions  simultaneous equation model

摘要:

[目的] 探究数字经济和农业产业结构升级对农业碳排放的作用机制，为实现中国农业经济高质量发展以及“双碳”相关政策的制定提供决策参考。[方法] 文章构建数字经济发展水平指标体系，基于2013—2021年中国30个省（市、自治区，不包含西藏、港、澳、台）的面板数据，运用面板联立方程模型，实证考察数字经济、农业产业结构升级与农业碳排放三者之间的影响关系及其区域差异，并进一步检验数字经济、农业产业结构升级对农业碳排放的作用渠道与传导效应。[结果] 数字经济的发展对农业产业结构升级和农业碳排放均产生了正向作用，农业产业结构升级显著抑制了农业碳排放，但数字经济可以通过优化农业产业结构升级的方式降低农业碳排放；受地理区域异质性因素的影响，数字经济发展、农业产业结构升级与农业碳排放之间的作用机制存在差异。[结论] 应从数字经济发展、农业产业结构升级等多维度入手，发挥数字经济的功能性作用，落实农业产业结构升级战略，推动农业绿色低碳转型，综合降低农业碳排放，以期实现中国农业低碳可持续发展。

Abstract:

[Purpose] To explore the mechanism of the digital economy and the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure on agricultural carbon emissions，so as to provide decision-making reference for the high-quality development of China's agricultural economy and the formulation of policies related to"dual carbon".[Method] Based on the panel data of 30 provinces（municipalities and autonomous regions，excluding Tibet，Hong Kong，Macao and Taiwan）from 2013 to 2021，this paper constructed an index system of digital economy development level，and used the panel simultaneous equation model to empirically investigate the impact relationship and vegional differences among the digital economy，agricultural industrial structure upgrading and agricultural carbon emissions；and further tested the channel and conduction effect of digital economy and agricultural industrial structure upgrading on agricultural carbon emissions.[Result] The development of digital economy had a positive effect on the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure and agricultural carbon emissions. The upgrading of agricultural industrial structure had significantly inhibited agricultural carbon emissions，but digital economy could reduce agricultural carbon emissions by optimizing the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure. Affected by the heterogeneity of geographical regions，there were differences in the mechanism of action between the development of digital economy，the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure and agricultural carbon emissions.[Conclusion] In order to realize the low-carbon and sustainable development of China 's agriculture，we should start with the development of digital economy and the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure，give full play to the functional role of digital economy，implement the strategy of upgrading agricultural industrial structure，promote the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture，and comprehensively reduce agricultural carbon emissions.