| 摘要: |
| 【目的】 准确监测苹果始花期、开展花期预报服务对于果农进行农业生产活动具有指导意义，可为农业管理部门进行冻害防治，保障苹果品质及产量提供参考。【方法】 文章采用一种基于作物参考曲线重建的方法，在黄土高原地区根据苹果样点的归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index，NDVI）时间序列（作物参考曲线）与重建后的苹果NDVI曲线在空间上的物候差异，绘制历史10 m高分辨率的始花期监测结果，实现了花期监测由点到面的转化。在10 m花期监测结果的基础上，加入积温阈值法实现始花期的预测。【结果】 2019—2021研究区域苹果花期的监测结果绝对误差均保持在1~3 d之内；利用积温矫正后，实现了始花期的预测，预测结果平均误差为2 d。苹果花期总体呈现东南部地区较早，而西北地区较晚的趋势。【结论】 研究结果对于果农进行农业生产活动具有指导意义，为农业管理部门进行冻害防治，对花期冻害的发生及时做出反应，为保障苹果品质及产量提供参考。 |
| 关键词: 作物参考曲线 物候期 苹果始花期 遥感监测 遥感预测 黄土高原 |
| DOI：10.12105/j.issn.1672-0423.20240301 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划“农情信息空天地一体化高效智能感知研究”（2022YFD2001102）；国家重点研发计划“玉米生产全程大数据挖掘与智能分析算法”（2023YFD2000104）；“风云三号03批气象卫星工程地面应用系统区域特色遥感应用系统农田生态遥感应用系统”（FY-3(03)-AS-12.14） |
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| Prediction of apple flowering date with 10 m resolution using remote sensing reference curve and accumulated temperature correction |
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Duan Mengqi1, Wang Zhao2, Sun Liang1, Wang Guangcai3, Sun Zheng1, Wang Zilin4
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1.State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arid and Semi-arid Arable Land in Northern China/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning，Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences，Beijing 100081，China;2.Agricultural Remote Sensing and Cash Crop Meteorological Service Center of Shaanxi Province，Xi'an 710016，Shaanxi，China;3.Dryland Farming Institute，Hebei Academy of Agriculture，Hengshui 053000，Hebei，China;4.College of Resources and Environment，Chengdu University of Information Technology，Chengdu 610225，Sichuan，China
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| Abstract: |
| Purpose Accurate monitoring and forecasting of apple flowering has a guiding significance for the agricultural production activities of fruit farmers，and provides a reference for the agricultural management departments to prevent and control freezing damage and ensure the quality and yield of apples.Method In this paper，a method based on crop reference curve reconstruction was used to plot the results of the initial flowering date monitoring with 10 meter high resolution，according to the spatial phenological differences between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index（NDVI）time series（crop reference curve）of apple sample points and the reconstructed apple NDVI curve in the Loess Plateau. The transformation of flowering monitoring from point to surface was realized. Based on the monitoring results of apple flowering date with 10 m resolution，the accumulated temperature threshold method was added to predict the apple flowering period.Result The results showed that the absolute error between monitoring results and ground data of apple flowering date in Shaanxi region of Loess Plateau from 2019 to 2021 was within 1-3 days. After correcting for cumulative temperature，the prediction of the onset of flowering was realised，with an average error of 2 d. In general，the apple flowering period was earlier in the southeast region and later in the northwest region.Conclusion The results have guiding significance for fruit farmers to carry out agricultural production activities，and provide reference for agricultural management departments to prevent and control freezing damage and respond to freezing damage in flowering period，so as to guarantee apple quality and yield. |
| Key words: crop reference curve phenological period apple flowering date monitoring forecast Loess Plateau |
