基于县域的粮食安全早期预警方法研究

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ON FOOD SECURITY AT COUNTY LEVEL

关键词:  农作物 监测 产量预报 早期预警系统

Key words:  crop  monitoring  output forecast  early warning system

摘要:

该文以二熟区典型粮食生产大荔县为例，根据粮食安全预警理论，结合农情监测网络试点县小麦 产量时间序列、农情调查和主要小麦品种性状的信息，建立了县域小麦年度间和生长季节内关键生育期的 产量预报方法。结果表明:大荔县2006～2007年度小麦播种前（年度预测）、播种～出苗期、出苗～越冬 期、越冬～返青期、返青～拔节期、收获（实际产量）等6个生育时期的每667m 2 的产量分别为258kg、 453.1kg、396kg、318.1kg、296.7kg和246kg，其中播种～出苗期、出苗～越冬期、越冬～返青期、返青～ 拔节期4个时期的产量安全预警系数分别为98、87、80和93，总体为绿色警示，无粮食安全风险警报，但 洛河灌区和洛南灌区分别在出苗～越冬期和越冬～返青期出现了黄色警示。此方法为建立中国粮食安全与 早期预警系统（CFSIEWS）探索了一条可能的途径。

Abstract:

Based on the theory and method of food security warning system， the early warning system on key crop growth period at county level was set up by integrating the information of wheat output time sequence， main wheat varieties and farming monitoring data during key periods in Dali County. The results indicated that the grain outputs per 667 m 2 for the period of before seeding（yearly forecasting）， seeding to seedling， seedling to wintering， winte- ring to regeneration， regeneration to jointing and harvest（actual output） were 258kg， 453.1kg， 396kg， 318.1kg， 296.7kg and 246kg respectively. The output security warning coefficients were 98， 87， 80 and 93 for the period of seeding to seedling， seedling to wintering， wintering to regeneration， regeneration to jointing， respectively， indica- ting no crop security risk alarm. However， it showed yellow alarm for seedling to wintering period in Luohe irriga- tion region and for wintering to regeneration period in Luonan irrigation region.