1980～2010年西藏农作物播种面积 与人口数量变化的相关分析

CORRELATION ANALYSIS BETWEEN SOWN AREA CHANGES AND POPULATION IN TIBET DURING 1980～2010

关键词:  西藏 粮食作物 油料作物 蔬菜 人口 相关性分析

Key words:  Tibet  grain crops  oil crops  vegetable crops  population  correlation analysis

摘要:

以1980～2010年西藏农业统计数据为基础，分析了西藏农作物总播种面积、粮食、油料、蔬菜、 果树播种面积变化情况及与西藏人口数量的相关关系。结果表明，1993年为西藏农作物播种面积变化的分 界点，1993年以前，变化幅度较小，而1993年后有很大的变化幅度，种植结构也从“重粮食作物、轻经 济作物”向“提高经济作物比重”转变。在1980～2010年间，西藏农作物总播种面积显著增加;粮食作 物播种面积在1980～1994和2001～2010年间呈降低趋势，1995～2000年间显著增加。油料作物、蔬菜作 物和果园面积呈不断增加趋势。西藏人口保持高于全国的人口自然增长率增长，人口总数呈极显著线性增 加（R=0.9974），与总农作物、油料作物、蔬菜作物播种面积呈极显著正相关关系，而与粮食作物播种面 积呈极显著负相关关系。人均总农作物和粮食作物播种面积低于全国水平，且呈现不断下降趋势。人口的 快速增加和粮食作物播种面积的不断下降，将会对西藏粮食安全产生威胁。

Abstract:

Based on agricultural statistics data during 1980 to 2010， the correlations between the variations of sown areas of total crops， oil crops， vegetables， orchard and the population in Tibet were analyzed .The results showed that the change range of crops sown area was small before 1993 but large after 1993. The planting structure was transformed from the grain crops to the cash crops. The sown area of total crops increased significantly from 1987 to 2010， of which the sown area of grain crops showed an obvious decrease from 1980to1994 and 2001 to 2010， but a significant increase from 1995 to2000， but the sown areas of oil crops， vegetables and orchards increased signifi- cantly during 1980 to 2010. The natural growth rate of Tibetan population was higher than the national and the total population showed a highly significant linear increase（R=0.9974）. The total population was positively correla- ted with total crops， oil crops， vegetable crops sown area， but significant negatively correlated with the grain crops sown area. The per capita of all crops and total grain sown area was below the national level with a declining trend. The rapid increase of population and the declining acreage of grain crops would be a threat to food security in Tibet.