山东省粮食种植成本影响因素的实证分析 ———以玉米、小麦为例

IMPACT FACTOR ANALYSIS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION COST OF SHANDONG PROVINCE ———TAKING CORN AND WHEAT FOR AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  粮食　种植成本　协整分析　敏感分析　贡献率分析

Key words:  grain  production cost  sensitivity analysis

摘要:

该文依据1998~2011年山东省粮食种植成本数据,运用单位根检验、E-G两步法协整检验及贡献率分析方法,对粮食种植实际生产成本的影响因素进行计量经济实证分析。敏感性分析表明:山东省玉米实际生产成本对机械作业费最敏感,其后依次为化肥施用量、播种面积及有效灌溉面积。小麦实际生产成本亦是对机械作业费最敏感,其后依次是播种面积、有效灌溉面积及化肥施用量。贡献率分析一致表明:山东省玉米、小麦各影响因素对粮食种植成本的贡献率均依次为机械作业费、化肥施用量、播种面积及有效灌溉面积。最后,针对山东省粮食种植成本的影响因素,提出抑制粮食种植成本过快上涨的对策建议。

Abstract:

Based on the grain planting cost data of Shandong province in 1998-2011,the paper empirically analyzed the grain plant actual production cost and the impact factors using root of unity test,E-G co-integration test,sensitivity factor and contribute rate analysis methods.Sensitivity analysis indicated that corn and wheat production costs in Shandong province were most sensitively to mechanical work cost,following by chemical fertilizer.apply,owing area,irrigated area for corn,and following by sowing area, irrigated area,chemical fertilizer application for wheat.Contribution rate analysis indicated that the contribution rate of each factors to grain cost in turn was mechanical work cost,chemical fertilizer application, sowing area and irrigated area.Finally measures and suggestions were put forward to bring down grain production cost,including1)taking measures energetically to cut down mechanical work cost;(2)Reducing chemical fertilizer application rates;(3)Strengthening infrastructure construction of farmland and water saving;(4)Enlarging scale of land operation and improving household's land operation willingness.