公共品视域下农民增收的实证研究 ——基于协整及VAR模型分析

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE INCREASE OF FARMERS INCOME FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF PUBLIC GOODS ——BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF COINTEGRATION AND VAR MODEL

关键词:  公共品 农民收入增长 数据模型分析 贡献率

Key words:  public goods  the increase of farmers income  the data model analysis  rate of contribution

摘要:

通过构建VAR模型及运用协整检验理论、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析等方法 研究农民人均纯收入与农村集体固定资产投资、农村义务教育投入、农村医疗卫生投入的长期均衡关系以 及因果关系。根据1990～2011年的相关数据实证分析发现:农村公共品的正向冲击对农民收入具有长期效 应，农村义务教育经费投入对农村居民人均纯收入的平均贡献率13.3%为最大，农村医疗卫生经费投入对 农村居民人均纯收入的平均贡献率11.5%位列第二，农村集体固定资产投资对农村居民人均纯收入的平均 贡献率3.4%相对最小，农村义务教育投入对农民人均纯收入增长的贡献率远远高于农村集体固定资产投 资和农村医疗卫生投入对农民人均纯收入的贡献率。这是由于农民的生产条件和生活条件的改善，农民对 农村公共品需求类型发生了变化，从注重基础设施的硬公共品需求转向对教育、医疗卫生等软公共品的需 求迫切，因此以农村公共品的需求类别为导向，科学制定高效率的农村公共品供给规划，达到促进农民增 收目的，当前阶段农村公共品供给优先序为:农村义务教育经费投入、农村医疗卫生经费投入、农村集体 固定资产投资。

Abstract:

By the construction of VAR model and using co-integration theory， Grainger causality test and impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis method， this paper studied the long-term equilibrium rela- tionship and causal relationship among per capita net income of farmers and rural collective investment in fixed as- sets， rural compulsory education investment， investment in rural medical and health. According to the related data from 1990 to 2011，the empirical analysis found that the positive impact of rural public goods had a long-term effect on per capita net income of farmers， the largest average contribution rate of rural compulsory education invest- ment to the growth of per capita net income of farmers was 13%，the second average rate contribution of rural med- ical and health investment to the growth of per capita net income of farmers was 11.5%，the minimum average contribution rate was rural collective investment in fixed assets to the growth of per capita net income of farmers with 3.4%. The contribution rate of rural compulsory education investment to the growth of per capita net income of farmers is far higher than that of rural collective investment in fixed assets due to the improvement of production and living conditions of farmers， the change of demand type of rural public goods for farmers from the infrastructure de- mand to education， health and other soft public goods demand. For this reason， as the demand type of the rural public goods oriented， it should scientific establish efficient rural public goods supply planning to promote the in- crease of per capita net income of farmers. In the current stage， the priority of supply of rural public goods was: Rural compulsory education investment， investment in rural medical and health， rural collective investment in fixed assets.