种植业内部贡献因素分解及对粮农收入增长 影响实证分析 ——以黑龙江省为例

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON PLANTING INTERNAL CONTRIBUTION FACTOR DECOMPOSITION AND INFLUENCE ON GRAIN FARMER INCOME GROWTH ——A CASE STUDY IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE

关键词:  种植业 粮农收入 因素分解模型 实证分析 黑龙江省

Key words:  crop farming  grain farmer's income  factor decomposition model  empirical analysis  Heilongjiang province

摘要:

该文基于1986～2010年全国和黑龙江省有关种植业数据，首先运用结构贡献因素分解模型分析 了”八五”到”十一五”时期黑龙江省种植业总产值增长的贡献因素，其次利用协整检验和VAR模型， 选取种植业总产值、种植业结构、粮食平均价格为解释变量计量分析了粮农收入贡献因素。研究结果表 明:从”八五”到”十一五”时期黑龙江省种植业单位面积产量和种植业结构调整对种植业产值增长的贡 献很小但有增强的趋势;价格对种植业总产值增长的贡献很大，是种植业产值增长的主要贡献因素，但有 起伏;总播种面积的贡献趋近于零。1986～2010年间黑龙江省种植业总产值、种植业结构调整对粮农收入 增加贡献较大，贡献分别为3.059 1和2.291 6，粮食价格对粮农收入增加贡献为-4.315 6。

Abstract:

Based on the national and Heilongjiang province empirical data in the crop farming from 1986 to 2010， the article firstly analyzed the contribution factors increasing the crop farming total production value from”the 8th five-year plan” to”11th five-year plan” period. Secondly， it quantitatively analyzed the contribution factor of farmers' income by co-integration testing and VAR modeling， selecting of plant total production， the structure of plants， average prices of staple crops as explained variables. The research results showed that the contribution of yield per unit and the structure of plants to the crop industry was low but intensive in Heilongjiang province from” the 8th five-year plan” to”11th five-year plan” period， the price was the main contribution factor on farming total production value， and the total sown area had little contribution. The contributions of crop farming GDP， plant structure adjustment and grain price to farmers' income reached 3.059 1， 2.291 6 and-4.315 6， respectively， in Heilongjiang province from 1986 to 2010.