农户秸秆还田采用行为影响研究

STUDY ON AGRICULTURAL STRAW RETURNING TO FIELD BEHAVIORS OF FARMERS

关键词:  政府补贴秸秆还田采用行为

Key words:  government subsidies  agricultural straw returning to field  operation

摘要:

为探明农户秸秆还田采用行为的影响因素，弄清秸秆还田技术扩散的推动力和阻碍力，从局限转变角度构建logistic模型，实证分析农户秸秆还田采用行为，通过似然比检验发现模型具有较好的拟合优度和预测效果。研究表明，农机作业补贴政策对农户采用行为存在显著激励作用，当补贴标准提高5%后，采用发生比将是现有补贴标准的182倍；农户采用行为也受性别、年龄、受教育程度、认知度等因素的显著影响。对年龄、家庭收入这两个以不同尺度测量的连续变量进行标准化回归系数分析后发现，年龄变量对农户采用行为的影响较收入变量更为显著。为探究认知度和年龄变量之间的交互作用，模型特别纳入了交互项，分析表明随着年龄的增长，农户采用行为会随之降低，但在提高其认知度后，采用发生比可提高1428倍，较高的认知度不仅是农户是否采用秸秆还田技术，也是该技术能否长期扩散的关键。

Abstract:

Based on the hypothesis that the government subsidy tended to encourage farmers to return agricultural straws, the paper investigated how the agricultural straw operation was affected by government policies and other secondary explanatory variables through a logistic model approach, where the government policies were served as the primary explanatory variable. The statistical results indicated that government subsidies to straw operation can substantially increase the usage of agricultural straw operation. In particular, a 5% increase in subsidies could promote 82% of the usage of straw operation. Moreover, the rate of usage could be affected by sex, age, literacy and awareness of the operation of the farmers. By running standardized regression tests, it found that the age played a remarkable role which showed a significant negative correlation with the rate of usage of agricultural straw operation. However, the improvement of the awareness can improve 1428 times for the straw operation of the farmers. It concluded that favorable government policies, as well as high literacy rates, played both a statistically and economically meaningful role in the spread of the agricultural straw operation across rural areas in China.