气候变化背景下主要气象要素对作物单产影响的模拟研究——以吉林公主岭玉米为例

SIMULATING EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABLES ON MAIZE YIELD UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE——A CASE STUDY OF GONGZHULING IN JILIN PROVINCE, CHINA

关键词:  气候变化 玉米单产 CERES Maize 模型模拟 吉林公主岭

Key words:  climate change  Maize yield  CERES-Maize  simulation  Gongzhuling

摘要:

利用吉林省公主岭黑土长期定位试验站点1990～2005年玉米生长监测数据，包括玉米生长发育及产量的详细观测资料和玉米田间管理数据，以及详细土壤资料和逐日气象观测资料，运用通用似然不确定性估计方法（GLUE），完成玉米品种参数的校验以及CERES Maize模型适应性验证，模拟了该地区1952～2010年各气象要素变化对玉米单产影响。研究表明： 1952～2010年的气象观测资料显示，该地区总体呈降水量和太阳辐射量逐渐减少，气温和CO2浓度逐渐升高的趋势。通过模拟研究表明，在保持品种和田间管理措施不变的情况下，气候变化对玉米单产总体呈负面影响。降水量和太阳辐射量与玉米单产之间均呈显著的正相关，相关系数分别为0748和024，而其变化引起的对单产影响率分别为-011%和-345%； 温度与玉米单产之间呈中度负相关，相关系数-0683**，温度变化造成的对玉米单产影响为-323%； 1952～2010年CO2浓度增加了77μL/L，CO2浓度增加带来的“肥料效应”使得玉米单产增加了54%。同时，气象要素对玉米单产的影响在不同年代差异显著。

Abstract:

This paper simulated the effects of climatic variables on maize yield in Gongzhuling, Jilin province, Northeast China, using the CERES-Maize model. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method, a widely used Bayesian method, was used to estimate cultivar-specific parameters of the CERES-Maize model. The measured data needed for model adaptability calibration and parameters estimation included experimental data, field management, maize growing stages, yield at harvest, soil profile data, daily weather data, which were obtained from Gongzhuling long-term black soil positioning test station from 1990 to 2005. After the model calibration and the cultivar-specific parameters estimation, the effects of different climate variables on maize yield were evaluated from 1952 to 2010. Analysis of weather data indicated that the precipitation and solar radiation decreased gradually while the mean temperature and CO2 concentration increased slightly in this region over the past 59 years. The results indicated that the climatic variables under climate change had negative impacts on yield of maize with cultivars and crop inputs held constant for the year 2005. Significantly, there was a moderate positive correlation between the simulated maize yield and precipitation, the correlation coefficient was 0748, but the variation of precipitation had -011% relative contribution to the yield of maize. The correlation between simulated yield of maize and the solar radiation was positive with the coefficient of 024, and the variation of solar radiation had -345% contributions to maize yield. There was a moderate negative correlation between mean temperature and simulated maize yield, with the correlation coefficient of -0683. The variation of temperature made -323% contributions to the yield of maize. The CO2 concentration increased by 77 ppm over the past 59 years, which was a raw material for plants to perform photosynthesis, thus maize will be benefited from the increasing concentration of CO2. The simulation results indicated that increasing of CO2 concentration produced fertilization effect on maize with an increase of 54% in maize yield. Furthermore, the impacts of each climatic variable on maize yield were significantly different over decades.