基于主成分分析对新巴尔虎左旗草地畜牧业转型升级模式综合评价研究

COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION ON THE TRANSFORMATION AND UPGRADING OF GRASSLAND ANIMAL HUSBANDRY BASED ON PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS

关键词:  草地畜牧业 转型升级 主成分分析

Key words:  grassland husbandry  transformation and upgrading  Principal Component Analysis Method

摘要:

新巴尔虎左旗的历史、地理、文化、人口、生态和经济等方面的条件独特，而草地畜牧业作为该旗的支柱产业。因此，实事求是地选择草地畜牧业转型升级模式，对当地的自由与发展具有至关重要的作用。该文在长期田野考察的基础上，综合考虑影响草地畜牧业转型升级的各种因素，构建出新巴尔虎左旗草地畜牧业转型升级评价指标模型。该文运用主成分分析法对7个苏木（镇）转型升级模式进行定量评价，根据各个苏木草地畜牧业转型升级综合水平的高低，为其选择一种转型升级主导模式。其中，阿镇为内生企业和资本市场模式，其他苏木镇在现阶段主要采取以合作化生产和家庭牧场的发展模式。另外，运用斜交旋转法，本文分析出草地畜牧业转型升级的显著影响因素，得出其中17种因素是新巴尔虎左旗草地畜牧业转型升级的主要驱动力。文章最后对新巴尔虎左旗草地畜牧业转型升级提出了政策建议，主张改造传统牧业，一方面需要强调现代化建设，另一方面需要循序渐进，尊重牧民的需求。

Abstract:

The grassland husbandry is the main industry in Xinba'erhuzuo Qi,where has special history,geography,culture,population,ecology and economics. To choose the upgrading model of this industry practically is vital to the development of local society.Based on the long-term field work and comprehensive consideration a variety of factors, this paper constructed an index model for the upgrading of grassland husbandry, and quantitatively evaluated the upgrading modes of 7 Sumus(towns)in Xinba'erhuzuo Qi using principle factor analysis method. And then it chose an upgrading mode for each Sumu(town) according to the comprehensive level.Furthermore,it analyzed the main factors for grassland husbandry and the results showed that 17 factors were main drivers for the upgrading of grassland husbandry in Xinba'erhuzuo Qi. Finally, the paper put forward some policy recommendations including to transform traditional husbandry,at one hand it should stress the modernization process, and on the other hand, it should make progress step by step and respect the needs of herdsmen.