基于CMS模型的中国茶叶出口东盟增长因素分析

ANALYSIS OF GROWTH FACTORS OF CHINA'S TEA EXPORTS TO ASEAN BASED ON THE CMS MODEL

关键词:  中国 东盟 CMS模型 茶叶 出口贸易

Key words:  China  ASEAN  CMS model  tea  export trade

摘要:

茶叶是中国极具传统与规模优势的产品，进入21世纪以来东盟在中国茶叶出口市场中地位日益凸显，对中国茶叶出口东盟展开研究已成为中国茶叶出口研究的一个重点，而如何把握中国茶叶出口东盟的增长因素则成为此项研究的一个难点。文章在分析中国对东盟茶叶出口贸易增长、市场结构及产品结构现状基础上，运用CMS模型对中国茶叶出口东盟增长因素展开研究。研究发现结构效应及其细分下的增长效应、市场效应、商品效应对出口增长起正向带动作用，结构交互效应则起阻碍作用，其中结构效应、增长效应、市场效应为主要影响因素； 竞争效应及其细分下的整体竞争效应和具体竞争效应对出口增长带动作用愈减，且具体竞争效应近阶段起阻碍作用，其中整体竞争效应是主要影响因素，中国各类茶叶产品在东盟市场均具有竞争力，其中绿茶竞争力水平有所降低，红茶基本保持，茶制品逐步提升； 二阶效应在其细分的纯二阶效应和动态二阶效应共同作用下对出口的增长由阻碍作用转变为正向带动作用，纯二阶效应在各阶段起正向带动作用，动态二阶效应不断提升，在近阶段起正向带动作用。

Abstract:

Tea is a traditional advantage product of China. Association of Southeast East Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been increasingly growing status in the Chinese tea export market since the 21st century. The study of China's tea export to ASEAN has become a hotspot, and how to grasp the growth factor of Chinese tea export has become one of the difficulties in the study. During the "new normal" of China's economy, ASEAN market may be a more important market of China's tea export. Through the analysis of the growing factors of tea export, market structure and product structure, this paper studied the growth factors of export tea using the CMS model and evaluated the tea products competitiveness using RCA index. The results showed that the structure effect, including its subdivisions such as growth effect, market effect and the effect of commodities had the positive effect in increasing export, but the interaction effect of structure had negative effect, of which the effect of structure, growth and market were key factors. The effect of competition and its subdivisions such as overall competition and specific competition effect had decreasingly effect in export, of which specific competition effect had negative effect in recent period and the overall competition effect acted as the main factor. All kinds of Chinese tea in ASEAN market had competition, of which green tea competitiveness decreased, black tea kept up and tea processing products gradually rose. The second order effect, together with pure second order effect and second order dynamic effect, impacted the export development from hindering to promoting. Pure second order effect took its positive function in every steps of export and the dynamic effect developed constantly into positive effect until now.