基于平衡膳食的中国主要农产品需求量估算

ESTIMATION OF THE PRIMARY PRODUCTS DEMAND IN CHINA BASED ON THE BALANCED DIET

关键词:  农产品 平衡膳食 需求 测算

Key words:  primary products  balance diet  demand  estimation

摘要:

科学估算我国各类农产品的需求量，对于调整农业规模与结构，制定农业发展战略具有重要意义。根据卫生部颁布的中国居民膳食指南中确定的我国各类食物的消费标准，结合各类食物的可食用率和各类农产品的技术经济参数，以2012年数据为基础，对于2012年平衡膳食条件下我国各类农产品的需求量进行了估算，并与2012年我国各类农产品的供给量进行了的对比分析。结果显示，我国大豆及坚果类、畜禽肉类、蔬菜、谷物薯类及杂豆类都超过了我国平衡膳食条件下的最高需求量，尤其是畜禽肉类和蔬菜的需求量，这两类农产品的产量分别是膳食需求最高量的239倍和258倍，我国鱼虾和奶类及奶制品供应不足，尚未达到平衡膳食需求的最低标准，蛋类和水果接近平衡膳食需求量的最高标准。不科学的饮食习惯和消费方式，以及我国农产品产后损失率偏高是导致我国农产品供给与膳食需求不匹配的主要原因。最后根据研究结果提出了相关的政策建议。

Abstract:

It's important to estimate the demand of primary products，because the government has to set up agricultural development strategy based on the result.The paper calculated the demand of primary products in 2012 under the condition of balanced diet，according to the dietary standard in the "China' dietary guidelines" drew up by Chinese Nutrition Society, and the technical and economic parameters of different primary products.In comparison with the output of various types of agricultural products in China in 2012，it found that the output of beans and nuts，livestock and poultry meat，vegetables，Grain potato and mixed beans had exceeded the highest amount of the demand under the conditions of balanced diet.The output of livestock and poultry meat，vegetables exceeded 2.39 and 2.58 times of the highest amount of the demand under the conditions of balanced diet respectively.The output of fish and shrimp，milk and milk products were lower than demand under the conditions of balanced diet.The output of eggs and fruit were close to the highest standards of balanced diet.Unreasonable eating and consumption habits，highest postpartum loss were the main reason of forming the gap between production and demand.The paper finally put forward some policy suggestions according to the research results.