1978～2012年中国烤烟生产重心演变轨迹及其驱动机制研究

ANALYSIS OF THE TRACK AND VARIATION OF FLUE-CURED TOBACCO PRODUCTION GRAVITY CENTRE AND THEIR DRIVING MECHANISM IN CHINA FROM 1978 TO 2012

关键词:  烤烟 生产格局 重心 113轨迹 驱动机制

Key words:  flue-cured tobacco  producing pattern  gravity center  moving trace  driving mechanism

摘要:

研究烤烟生产格局及其时空动态变化具有重要的现实意义。为了揭示中国烤烟生产时空动态变化特征，文章通过构建重心拟合模型，计算了1978～2012年35年间中国烤烟总产量重心、烤烟种植面积重心和单产重心的移动轨迹、移动距离、移动方向以及移动速度等，并对总产量重心与种植面积重心和单产重心之间的时空耦合性进行了分析。结果表明， 1978年以来中国烤烟生产重心整体表现出明显的由中向西、从北向南的演进态势。其中，烤烟产量重心35年间向西南方向移动了32.8°，平均每年移动距离为19.2km； 烤烟种植面积重心向西南方向移动了28.7°，平均每年移动距离为17.1km； 烤烟单产重心向西移动趋势较为明显而向南移动的趋势并不明显； 烤烟产量重心与烤烟种植面积重心移动方向和移动距离具有高度的一致性。实证分析结果证明，耕地资源禀赋、城镇化水平以及种烟劳动力机会成本和烤烟生产比较收益的地区差异是驱动烤烟生产重心不断向西南方向移动的重要社会经济因素。

Abstract:

It has important practical significance to study the production pattern of flue-cured tobacco and its temporal and spatial dynamic change.In order to reveal the temporal and spatial dynamic change characteristics of flue-cured tobacco producing in China since the reform and opening，this paper separately calculated the moving trace，distance，direction and speed of gravity center of flue-cured tobacco production，planting area and yield by constructing fitting model of gravity center.In addition, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial coherence of gravity center of flue-cured tobacco production，planting area and yield from 1978 to 2012.The results showed that the gravity centers of flue-cured tobacco producing had obvious evolution trends from middle to west and from north to south since 1978.Wherein the gravity center of flue-cured tobacco production had moved 32.8°toward southwest in 35 years and the average annual moving distance is 19.2km.The gravity center of flue-cured tobacco area had moved 28.7°toward southwest and the average annual moving distance is 17.1km. In addition，there was high consistent in the moving direction and distance of gravity center of flue-cured tobacco production and planting area.Empirical analysis results showed that differences of endowment of cultivated land resources，level of urbanization，flue-cured tobacco producing comparative benefit and labor opportunity cost among different regions were the main socio-economic factors to drive the gravity center of flue-cured tobacco producing constantly move to southwest.