农户科学储粮技术认知与采用意愿研究——基于山东省的实证分析

KNOWLEDGE AND DECISION MAKING ON SCIENTIFIC GRAIN STORE TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION——EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLDS OF SHANDONG PROVINCE

关键词:  科学储粮 粮食储备 农户 储粮技术 技术采用

Key words:  scientific grain store  grain store  rural households  grain store technology  technology adoption

摘要:

山东是经济发达的产粮大省，农户科学储粮技术在山东的试点对全国其它地区具有示范作用与借鉴意义。文章基于山东361户农户调查数据资料，首先考察“农户科学储粮专项”试点背景下农户2010~2012连续3年的小麦与玉米年末存量、储存方式、储藏损失、储粮目的及储存效果，然后对农户科学储粮技术的认知、采用及其效果进行描述性统计分析，并运用Logistic模型深入探究影响农户科学储粮技术采用意愿的个人及家庭特征因素。结果表明：农户近3年来粮食储量稳定，主要储粮方式是袋装与缸装，损耗来源于鼠害、虫害及霉菌； 科学储粮技术效果明显，但普及率低； 大多数农户具有技术采用意愿； 家庭人口学特征与粮食生产、消费和储备情况及农户对技术的了解情况在不同程度上影响其技术采用意愿。主要政策建议与启示为：扩大试点范围，开发不同技术满足各类农户需求，并探索适当的补贴机制、构建技术服务体系，融“科学储粮工程”于新农村建设及农业服务体系之中。

Abstract:

Shandong is an economically developed province, while it is also a major grain-producing province. Therefore, the pilot of Scientific Grain Store Technology（SGST）in Shandong is exemplary to other areas across the county. Based on the first-hand data of 361 Shandong rural households gathered under the background of promoting SGST, this paper firstly examined the total amount of corn and wheat, and the losses of storing in the three consecutive years, 2010, 2011 and 2012 respectively. Also itanalyzed why the rural households store wheat and corn, what methods they use and how effective.Secondly, we madea descriptive statistical analysis on peasants' knowledge and view of the SGST, their adoption and the effect of the SGST.And thenitanalyzedthefactors affecting peasant's willingness to adopt the SGST by Logistic regression.Results showed that, first, the amount of rural households' grain store, mainly corn and wheat, were stable in the nearly three years. Second, bags and vats were the main container for grain store, which were easily exposed to the risks of rodents, insects and mildew. The third, the SGST was rather effective while the adoption ratio was low. It did not mean thatpeasants did not like it, only because of the absence of local promotion of the SGST. In fact, most peasants showed great interests in the SGST, they werewilling to buy the metal warehouse. The forth, the characteristics and factors which had significantly affected on peasants' willingness to adopt the SGST were: 1) the family demographic characteristics, such as age, education, land area, experience of working in city, loan; 2) total production, the ratio of income from grain production to family income; 3) quantity of grain storage, storage loss and effect of current storing methods; 4) understanding of the SGST. Finally, the paper put forward some suggestions and policy implications, which included that1) the SGST should be further promoted while with more types to meet different needs; 2) the government should make differentiated standards to provide appropriate subsidy to those households when they buy the metal warehouse, help to construct the corresponding technical service system and 3) taking into account of comprehensiveconstruction of the New Village, it was necessary to merge the SGST program in the process of New Village Construction.