基于三角白化权函数的重庆市水资源承载力灰色聚类评价

GREY CLUSTERING ASSESSMENT ON THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF WATER RESOUCE IN CHONGQING BASED ON TRIANGLE WHITENING WEIGHT FUNCTION

关键词:  水资源 可持续承载力 三角白化权函数 灰色聚类评价 重庆

Key words:  water resources  sustainable carrying capacity  triangle whitening weight function  grey cluster assessment  Chongqing

摘要:

水资源可持续承载力是区域可持续发展综合评价的重要指标。文章从重庆市水资源系统、社会经济系统及生态环境系统等3个方面考虑，选取24 个水资源承载力影响因子建立了水资源可持续利用评价指标体系。基于三角白化权函数的灰色评估是灰色聚类分析法中划分对象类别的一种新方法，将这种方法应用于重庆市水资源可持续承载力评价中，把重庆市2000～2009年的水资源可持续承载力状况分成劣、差、中、良、优等5个灰类进行综合聚类评估。结果表明：（1）2000～2009年间，重庆市水资源可持续承载力总体上处于上升趋势，排列顺序为： 2008＞2000＞2009＞2004＞2002＞2003＞2007＞2005＞2006＞2001； 在2000年、2008年及2009年属于优灰类， 2001年属于劣灰类， 2002年、2003年、2004年及2007年属于良灰类， 2006年属于差灰类， 2005年属于中灰类； （2）基于三角白化权函数的灰色评估评价得出的结果比较客观，重庆市水资源可持续承载力对水资源子系统依赖程度较高，制约重庆市未来水资源可持续利用的主要因素在于年际间的干旱灾害，应引起相关部门的高度重视。

Abstract:

Water resource is not only the most important material for the human social economic development and the survival of human, but also the key factors of agricultural production, the farmers' income, food consumption and economic strength. Especially for developing countries,the demand for food will increase due to the continuously increased population.Water resource is basic condition guaranteeing the sustainable grain production. The quantity and quality of water resource are decreasing due to the lack of scientific management and utilization measures of water resource, which may cause the decline of the comprehensive grain production capacity. Therefore, protecting and improving the water resources carrying capacity have played important role in ensuring the food safety and reducing poverty in the future. The sustainable carrying capacity of water resources is an important index of regional sustainable development comprehensive evaluation. In order to improve the sustainable carrying capacity situation of water resources, the paper established an evaluation system from 24 indexes in three aspects of water resources systems, social and economic systems and ecological environmental system. Grey assessment method based on the Triangle Whiten Weight Function, a new method to classify objects categories in grey clustering analysis, was applied in this paper to assesswater resources sustainable carrying capacity in Chongqing from 2000 to 2009, whichwasdivided into five grey classes such as excellent,good,fair,poor and worse. The results showed that: (1) The sustainable carrying capacity of water resources in Chongqing generallyshowed an upward trend from 2000 to 2009, following the order : 2008 > 2000 > 2009 > 2004 > 2002 > 2003 > 2007 > 2005 > 2006 > 2001; it was excellent in 2000, 2008 and 2009 while worse in 2001; it was good in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2007 while poor in 2006; it was fair in 2005; (2) the results of grey assessment method based on the Triangle Whiten weight Function were more accurate, objective and close to actually local situation. The sustainable carrying capacity of water resources in Chongqing was highly dependent on water resources subsystem.The main factors restricting the future developmentwere the annual drought disastersthat should arouse great attention from relevant departments.