新丝绸之路背景下中国对哈萨克斯坦出口农产品结构优化研究

STRUCTURE OPIMNIZATION OF THE EXPORT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS FROM CHIINA TO KAZAKHSTAN IN THE BACKGROUND OF THE NEW SILK ROAD

关键词:  哈萨克斯坦 农产品 结构优化 比较优势 贸易条件

Key words:  Kazakhstan agricultural product  structure optimization  comparative advantage  terms of trade

摘要:

文章利用显性比较优势对比指数、贸易互补性指数及要素禀赋相关理论对中国出口哈萨克斯坦农产品结构进行了系统梳理，对比分析结果表明，中国出口哈萨克斯坦农产品结构在互补性与竞争性方面整体上呈现出有益的变化，基本符合比较优势理论的发展要求，但微观角度的考量则表现出明显的差异性，尤其是对互补性的相关测算，报告期内波动明显； 而该研究通过进一步对要素禀赋结构的考察，发现中国对哈出口农产品要素结构仍处于较低水平，劳动密集型农产品与资源密集型农产品出口份额较大，尤其是劳动密集型农产品，这一方面使我们对微观层面的波动有了更准确地把握； 同时，通过综合对比分析，亦得出中国目前一些对哈出口农产品有向“比较优势陷阱”发展的可能，因此，文章遵循比较优势的基本逻辑，按照新丝绸之路经济带对西部的长期战略发展要求，给出若干政策建议，以期能够从理论层面贡献于中国对哈农产品贸易总额的稳定快速增长。

Abstract:

This papersystematicallyanalyzed the structure of the agricultural productexportedtoKazakhstan using the comparative advantage index, trade complementary index and the terms of trade index. The comparison analysis results showed that the structure of theexported Chinese agricultural productshadcarried on the beneficial changes in the comparative and complementary, and can basically meet the requirement of the development of the theory of comparative advantage. But it showedan obvious difference in the measurement of complementarityduring the reporting periodfrom the microscopic view. And also it further investigated the structure of factor endowment, and found that the element structure of the exported agricultural products were still at the low level, the ratio of labor-intensive agricultural products and resource-intensive agricultural products werelarge, especially the labor-intensive agricultural products. At the same time, itconcluded that at present some exportedagricultural products may develop to the "comparative advantage trap"through the comprehensive comparisonanalysis. Therefore, following the basic logic of comparative advantage, and in accordance with the strategicrequirement of the new silk road economic belt to the long-term development of west regions, it put forward some policy suggestionsfor the fast growth of thetotal amount of agricultural trade from China to Kazakhstan.