“新常态”背景下我国产业结构与金融结构联动性研究

THE LINKAGE OF INDUSTRIAL AND FINANCIAL STRUCTURE IN CHINA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF THE NEW NORMAL

关键词:  新常态 金融结构 产业结构 灰色关联

Key words:  new normal  financial structure  Industrial structure  Gray correlation method

摘要:

新常态背景下，产业结构升级需要金融进行支持，产业结构调整伴随着金融结构优化。文章选取1992～2013年中国金融结构、产业结构及其它相关数据，采用灰色关联法对“新常态”之前时期与“新常态”时期的产业结构与金融结构关联度进行实证分析，结果显示：产业结构升级与银行市场的关联度在“新常态”之前时期、“新常态”时期两者之间的关联度呈现一般关联性强度；与证券市场的关联度在“新常态”之前时期呈现强关联性，在“新常态”时期呈现超强关联性；与保险市场状况的关联度在“新常态”前时期呈现弱关联性，在“新常态”时期呈现一般关联性。同时，在指标选取过程中加入科技水平与教育水平指标，实证结果显示：科技水平、教育水平与两者的关联度呈正相关，科技水平、高等教育水平与产业结构升级在“新常态”之前时期都呈现一般关联性，在“新常态”时期则都呈现弱关联性。提升两者的关联度，实现产业结构调整与金融结构优化的良性互动，该文建议从以下几个方面着手改进：缩小间接融资比例、改变教育方式、优化保险制度等。

Abstract:

At present，China is in a period of the new normalIn the background，upgrading of industrial structure needs the support of finance，and industrial structure adjustment accompanies with financial structure's optimization，therefore the both have close theory contentBased on the data of financial structure and industrial structure from 1992 to 2013，this paper made an empirical analysis about industrial structure and financial structure before and in the period of “New Normal” by Grey Relational AnalysisThe results showed that the correlation between the monetary market and the upgrading of industrial structure was general before the new normal；but the correlation was significant between the stock market and the upgrading of industrial structureIt was weak between insurance market situation and industrial structure upgrade before the new normalBy selecting the technology and education index，the empirical results showed that the correlation between science and technology level，higher education level and the upgrading of industrial structure were general in the early stage of the new normal，and weak in the new normal periodThat meant the level of science and technology，education level during the period of the new normal were not important for upgrading the industrial structure adjustmentTo achieve industrial restructuring and financial structure optimization，it put forward some suggestions，ie.，reducing ratio of indirect financing for the development of capital markets，such as the stock market，bond market and so on，adjusting the requirement of high tech industry，optimizing insurance system to promote the better adjustment of industrial structure.