我国农业大省三大产业关联度测算——以河南省为例

THE CALCULATION OF THREE MAJOR INDUSTRIAL RELATED DEDREE INWELL-DEVELOPED AGRICULTURAL PROVINCES IN CHINA——TAKING HENAN PROVINCE AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  农业大省 三大产业 VAR VAC 关联度

Key words:  the well-developed agricultural provinces  three major industries  VAR  VAC  the correlation degree

摘要:

农业大省是新常态下三大产业共同发展，传统与现代农业相互促进的省份。对我国农业大省三大产业关联度的测算有助于找准产业发展的突破点，为相关决策提供参考。河南省社会发展处于中国农业大省的平均水平，能够较全面、准确地代表我国农业大省的三大产业发展情况。故以河南省为例，选取该省1978～2013年的三大产业生产总指数建构VAR模型，利用单位根检验、Johansen协整关系检验、VEC误差修正模型、广义脉冲响应的方法对三大产业之间的长期动态关系进行了追踪、分析及预测。结果发现：（1）第一产业能为第二产业提供原材料等物质基础，在前期正向影响第二产业幅度较大，但未来并不及技术进步对第二产业的推动力大，因而后期这种正向影响会逐渐减弱；同时，第一产业因为不能提供相关市场、技术及其他资源要素，对第三产业影响虽然是正向的，但是并不显著。（2）第二产业会因占用耕地等问题先负向影响第一产业，但随着经济发展方式转变，第二产业会正向影响第一产业；第二产业与第三产业相辅相成，对第三产业有稳定的正向影响。（3）第三产业对第一产业与第二产业培养相关的专业人才及相关的技术设备，因而能对第一产业及第二产业产生正向且持续的影响，对第二产业的影响更加显著。可见，我国农业大省三大产业是动态的互动关联，因而农业大省应该结合社会经济发展阶段，顺应产业关联度变化来发展各产业。

Abstract:

The province with well-developed agriculturepromotes the development of the three industries as well as thetraditional and modern agricultureunder the new normal.Estimating the three major industrial correlation degree of well-developed agriculture provinces in China is helpful for finding out the breakthrough point of the industry development，and providing a reference for the relevant policy decision.The social development of Henan province is in the average level of the well-developed agricultural provinces in China，which can represent the development of the three major industries of these provinces in a more comprehensive and accurate way.Therefore，in this study，the VAR model of the three major industrial production index in Henan province of 1978-2013 was selected，and the long-term dynamic relationship among the three industries was tracked，analyzed and predicted by using unit root test，Johansen cointegration test，VEC error correction model and generalized impulse response method.The results found that（1）The first industry had a positive impact on the second industry at first，because it can provide raw material and other material basis for the second industry′s development，but this positive impact will be gradually weaken when technological progress had a stronger driving force on the second industry in the future；The first industry′s impact on the third industry was positive but not significant，because it can not provide the market，technology and other resources for the third industry.（2）The second industry had a negative impact on the first industry because of the occupation of arable land，but with the economic development mode′s changing towards the more advanced stage，the second industry will have a positive impact on the first industry at last；Meanwhile，the second industry and the third industry supplemented each other so that the second industry also had a positive impact on the third industry for a long time.（3）And the third industry had a positive and sustainable impact on the first industry and the second industry because of its cultivation for the related and professional personnel，technology and technical equipment，and the third industry′s impact on the second industry was more significant.Therefore，the three major industries of well-developed agricultural provinces in China showed a dynamic relationship，so it should develop the three major industriesbased on the change of the industrial relationship on the social and economic development stages.