河北省玉米供给反应研究——基于2003～2010年农户层面的动态面板分析

RESEARCH ON THE SUPPLY RESPONSE OF MAIZE IN HEBEI PROVINCE——BASED ON THE DYNAMIC PANEL ANALYSIS AT FARMER HOUSEHOLDS′ LEVEL FROM 2003 TO 2010

关键词:  玉米 河北 农业供给模型 动态面板 广义矩阵估计

Key words:  maize  Hebei  supply response model  dynamic panel  GMM

摘要:

玉米已成为我国播种面积最大的粮食作物，同时玉米在主要粮食作物中比例也不断攀升。文章利用2003～2010年河北省农户玉米种植的动态面板数据，建立了农业供给反应（适应性预期）模型，采用广义矩阵估计方法（GMM），对影响河北省9个县534户农民的玉米供给和调整的价格、政策以及气候等因素进行了动态面板实证分析和相关探讨。基于农户玉米生产供给反应模型的理论框架，推导出研究所采用的动态面板适应性预期模型。结果表明，首先，河北省农户的玉米种植面积对于价格变化很敏感，玉米种植面积的长期价格弹性较大。其次，补贴政策对于农户种植玉米有一定的积极促进作用，但是农户对于补贴额的反应程度很小。再次，生产成本投入增加会制约河北省农户玉米种植。最后，降水对于保证玉米生产具有重要作用。因此，稳定玉米价格、继续加大政策支持力度、完善水利基础设施补贴力度对于保证河北省玉米生产和供给会产生积极促进作用。

Abstract:

Maize has the largest planting area of the grain crops in China, and the proportion in the major grain crops is also increasing. This paper analyzed the supply response (adaptive expectations model) for maize in Hebei province and its impact factors like price, policy, and climatic factors using Generalize Moment Method with a cluster data from 534 farm households across 9 villages from 2003 to 2010. Based on the theoretical framework of supply response model for farmer household, it deduced the dynamic panel adaptive expectations model for this study. The empirical results showedthat, first, planting area of maize in Hebei was sensitive to the change of price, and the long-term price elasticity of maize planting area was large; second, the subsidy from the government had a positive role in promoting maize planting area, but the farmers′response to the amount of subsidies was very small; third, the increased production costs restricted farmers′ maize planting area in Hebei province; finally, precipitation played an important role in maize production. Therefore, the stability of maize price, increased policy support, improved water conservancy infrastructure construction were crucial to ensure the production and supply of maize in Hebei province.