1980～2010年中国耕地复种可提升潜力空间格局变化

CHANGES IN SPATIO-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF POTENTIAL INCREMENT MULTIPLE CROPPING IN CHINA DURING 1980～2010

关键词:  中国 复种指数 可提升潜力 时空变化 粮食增产潜力

Key words:  China  multiple cropping index  potential increment  spatial distribution  food production

摘要:

利用1980～2010年中国分县农业统计数据和中国地面气候日值数据，分别估算20世纪80年代、90年代及21世纪初的中国县级实际复种指数（MCI）和潜力复种指数（PMCI），据此分析过去30年中国耕地复种可提升潜力（PIMCI）的空间格局变化，并进而探究复种可提升潜力对全国粮食增产潜力的贡献大小。结果表明：（1）在时间尺度上，中国耕地PIMCI从20世纪80年代的502%减少到90年代的487%，之后受PIMCI与MCI逆向变化的影响，到21世纪初耕地可提升复种指数扩大到596%。（2）从不同地理区域看，中国不同农业种植区耕地PIMCI变化具有明显的地理空间差异。黄淮海区和云贵区的PIMCI低于10%，且30年内变化相对稳定； 西北区和北部高原区的PIMCI有减少的趋势； 东北区、川陕区及青藏区连续增加； 水热资源充沛的南方各农业区波动剧烈。（3）在现有耕地面积保持不变的基础上，通过提高土地集约化利用强度，充分挖掘耕地的复种潜力，可以新增约30%的农作物播种面积，粮食增产潜力达到全国粮食总产的322%。其中潜力较高的区域主要集中在南方的3个农业区（长江中下游区、华南区、南方丘陵区）及青藏区，这4个区域的粮食增产潜力可达到全国增产总潜力的70%。但该潜力的实际利用需要充分考虑区域的资源禀赋、技术水平、生态环境和经济政策等因素。

Abstract:

This paper evaluated the spatio-temporal dynamics of potential increment multiple cropping index(PIMCI) of China during 1980 to 2010, which can reveal the land use change under the climate warm and the rapid economic growth since 1980s and identify the regional potential to increase food supply, based on the potential multiple cropping index(PMCI) extracted by ago-meteorology data and census data. The results indicated that (1)The overall PMCI decreased from 50.2% to 48.7% during 1980s to 1990s and increased to 59.6% by the start of 21st century. (2)The changes of PIMCI showed tremendous heterogeneity in China. Huang-Huai-Hai plain and Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau changed less over the past decades. Southeast coastal area had large fluctuation during this period. Northwest China, Inner Mongolia and along the Great Wall regions decreased significantly, while Northeast China, Loess Plateau, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau changed into the opposite trend. (3) the harvest area and food production increased by 30% and 32.2%, respectively, by improving the MCI and PMCI. The high potential region mainly located at south China, Middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, Hilly Area of South China, and Qinghai-Tabet Plateau. The potential increment of crop yield in these regions can reach 70% of the whole potential of China, but it still needed to consider the factors such as natural resources, technology, environment and regional economic policy, and so on.