基于宏观经济数据的农村劳动力转移对陕西省经济贡献研究

THE CONTRIBUTION OF RURAL LABOR TRANSFER ON SHAANXI PROVINCE′S ECONOMIC BASED ON MACROECONOMIC DATA

关键词:  陕西省 宏观数据 农村劳动力 转移 经济贡献

Key words:  Shannxi province  macro data  rural labor  transfer  economic contribution

摘要:

文章采用定性分析与实证分析相结合的方法，通过对农村劳动力转移概念的界定，并构造出农村劳动力转移对经济贡献的计算办法，分析过程结合了34年间陕西省相关经济数据，同时，结合该项目调研进展，得出结论如下：（1）2003～2007年由于劳动力转移贡献的全社会劳动生产率上升占到的比率为14.4%，而2008～2012年这一指标上升到44.9%。由于2007～2008年受到金融危机的影响，加之陕西省颁布的一系列惠农政策，导致外出的农村劳动力向陕西省内流动速度加快，劳动力在产业间的移动加剧，进而导致其贡献大幅上升； （2）2008～2012年劳动力转移对GDP增长贡献百分比最高为42.2%，增长幅度也最大，其中农村劳动力转移起到了关键性作用； （3）结合问卷调查结论，待机而出的比例最高约为52.25%，说明陕西省长期对农村劳动力吸引力不足。鉴于此，从合理引导农村劳动力再就业、发挥政府力量、改变企业观念等方面提出具体对策。

Abstract:

Using a combination method of qualitative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper defined the concept of rural labor transfer and constructed the calculation method of the contribution of rural labor force transfer to economy, based on the relevant economic data of Shaanxi province for 34 years and investigation. The results showed (1) from 2003 to 2007 the whole society labor productivity ratio increased to 14.4% because of the labor transfer contribution, while the index rose to 44.9% from 2008 to 2012. Since the financial crisis in 2007 ~ 2008 and a series of favorable policies in Shaanxi province, the rural labor force movement intensified and had an significant contribution;(2) The labor transfer from 2008 to 2012 had the highest contribution of 42.2% to GDP growth and played a key role;(3) By the questionnaire survey to the conclusion, the rural labor prepared to transfer had the high ratio of about 52.25%, which showed a rural labor shortage in Shaanxi province for a long time. Finally, it put specific countermeasures from reasonable guiding the rural labor force employment, playing government power, and changing enterprise concept.