中国农村人口趋势的脆弱性分析

ANALYSIS OF THE VULNERABILITY OF RURAL POPULATION TREND

关键词:  农村人口 动态趋势 脆弱性 公共产品 可持续

Key words:  rural population  dynamic trends  vulnerability  public products  sustainability

摘要:

［目的］通过对改革开放以来中国农村人口变化的历史趋势与轨迹过程分析，判断人口变化趋势给农村发展带来的脆弱性，从人口变化趋势方面提出提高农村发展可持续性建议。［方法］借助脆弱性分析方法，通过既有的长时间、多角度的统计数据，对中国农村人口的总体趋势、少年儿童组人口趋势、老年组人口趋势的脆弱性进行分析。［结果］ 从各个方面来看，农村人口的变化趋势都在使农村的脆弱性增强； 少年儿童组人口的减少趋势造成了农村4个方面的脆弱性增强——未来发展动力更为缺乏、乡土文化传承困难、农村社会资本转型放缓、公共产品投入回报率低，其中公共产品的回报率低与少年儿童组人口的减少趋势互为因果地增强了农村的脆弱性； 老年组人口大幅度增加趋势使农村发展活力下降的同时，与所需的养老公共产品供应不足问题，共同导致了当下劳动力的回流困难，加重了农村的脆弱性。［结论］应通过促进农村资源的资本化和市场化、引导公共产品投资的多样化、公共产品按需精准供应等多方面政策相结合，降低农村人口趋势所带来的脆弱性，增强农村发展的可持续性。

Abstract:

Through the analysis of the historical trend and process of China’s rural population since the reform and opening up, based on the method of vulnerability analysis, the general population trend, the trend of the children group and the elderly group population were analyzed through the long-term and multi-angle statistics. The results showed that the rural vulnerabilities were enhanced because of many aspects of rural population change. The decrease trend of the young people resulted in the enhancement of rural vulnerability from four aspects - lack of future development power, the difficulties of the local cultural heritage, the slowdown in the transformation of rural social capital, the low rate of return on public goods, and the low rate of returned on public goods. The amount and quality of rural social old care facilities were far insufficient to fill in the gap, which made the current working age labor force in urban area be not willing to go back their rural home. Finally, it proposed some policy recommendations, such as promoting the capitalization and marketization of rural resources, and guiding the diversification of investment in public goods to reduce the vulnerability of population trends and enhance sustainability.