基于多层次模糊综合模型的伊犁水库征地移民安置效果评价

EVALUATION ON THE RESETTLEMENT EFFECT OF THE LAND-EXPROPRIATED IMMOGRANTS OF ILI RESERVOIR BASED ON MULTI-LEVEL FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE MODEL

关键词:  征地移民 安置评价 多层次模糊综合模型 效果差异 恰甫其海水库

Key words:  land-expropriated immigrants  resettlement evaluation  effect difference  multi level fuzzy comprehensive model  Qiafuqihai reservoir

摘要:

［目的］为帮助移民脱贫致富，解决征地移民的实际困难，增强移民发展后劲，促进安置区的稳定与发展，以伊犁河谷恰甫其海水库造成的征地移民为研究对象，其移民主要安置在特克斯县、察布查尔县、巩留县境内。［方法］从移民的实际情况出发，对移民搬迁前的生活状况以及搬迁后的3个迁入地的移民安置效果进行综合评价。首先从经济增长、生活水平、生产能力、基础设施、社会保障5个方面来构建评价指标体系； 其次，运用层次分析法和专家打分法来确定各指标间的权重，同时构建半梯形隶属函数及单因素评价矩阵； 最后，运用多目标多层次模糊综合评价方法对移民搬迁前的生活状况与3个迁入地的安置效果进行综合评价。文章旨在借助模糊综合评价模型来评价3个地区的移民安置效果差异，重在分析导致安置效果差异存在的原因及安置区存在的问题，在此基础上，提出符合实际的解决对策，为移民的后续安置工作提供科学依据与参考。［结果］搬迁前移民综合评价值为0.2451，搬迁后安置区特克斯县、察布查尔县、巩留县的值分别为0.5755、0.5159、0.3781，大于搬迁前的值。［结论］3个县移民生活状况较搬迁前均有所改善，但安置效果仍存在差异性，安置效果最好的是特克斯县，其次是察县，最后是巩留县。鉴于此，文章从安置模式的差异、区位优势的差异、扶持方式的差异、耕地质量的差异等4个方面分析3个县安置效果差异的原因。并分析征地移民在安置过程中存在的问题，针对问题提出符合区域实际的解决措施，提高移民经济发展水平，改善生活质量，带动安置区社会、经济、生活、环境等全面发展。

Abstract:

Aimed to help the immigrants overcome poverty and achieve prosperity, solve the actual difficulties of land acquisition and resettlement, enhance immigrants′ development stamina, and promote resettlement area’s stabilization and development, this paper took the land-expropriated immigrants caused by Qiafuqihai reservoir of Ili valley as the research object, evaluated the immigrants′ living standard and immigrant resettlement effect through multi-objective and multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. First of all, it established evaluation index system from 5 aspects of economy growth, living standard, production capacity, infrastructure and social insurance, and weighed each index with AHP (analytic hierarchy process) and the expert scoring method. Then, the semi trapezoidal membership function and the single factor evaluation matrix were constructed. Finally, it put forward countermeasures to solve the practical and provide scientific basis and reference for subsequent resettlement work of immigrants. The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation value of migrants was 0.245 1 before the removal, and 0.575 5，0.515 9，0.378 1, respectively, in the resettlement areas of Tks county, Qapqal county and Gongliu county after the removal. The immigrants living standards were improved after the removal. However, there were still differences in the effect of resettlement due to the different placement mode, the different location advantage, the influence of the support mode, and the different quality of the cultivated land. It put forward some suggestions to promote the harmonious development of social economy in the resettlement area, such as meeting the practical requirements, improving the migration level of economic development, and enhacing the quality of life.