山东省苹果种植收益影响因素的实证分析

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ABOUT INFLUENCING FACTORS OF APPLE PLANTING EARNING IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

关键词:  苹果 种植收益 单位根检验 协整检验 贡献率

Key words:  apple  planting earning  unit root test  co-integration test  contribution rate

摘要:

［目的］利用1998～2015年山东省苹果种植的年度间可比成本收益数据，从敏感性和贡献率两个角度，实证分析山东省苹果种植收益的影响因素。［方法］运用单位根检验、Engle-Granger协整检验、贡献率分析方法，以平减后每667m2实际净收益为被解释变量，以平减后实际价格、单产、平减后每667m2实际物质与服务费等因素为解释变量，分别分析其对山东省苹果种植收益的影响。［结果］敏感性分析表明：山东省苹果种植每667m2实际净收益对每50kg产品实际出售价格最敏感，其后依次是每667m2产量、每667m2实际物质与服务费。贡献率分析表明：每50kg产品实际出售价格对山东省苹果种植每667m2实际净收益的贡献率最大，其后依次是每667m2产量、每667m2实际物质与服务费。［结论］山东省苹果种植收益的首要影响因素是价格，其次是单位面积产量，物质与服务费的影响相对较小。据此，首先应进一步延伸苹果产业链条、拓展国际市场，扩大需求，提高苹果价格； 同时建立健全苹果期货交易机制，规避价格波动风险。其次应加快低效果园更新改造、完善果园基础设施、加快苹果种植技术研发推广，提高苹果单产。还应采取多种措施抑制物质与服务费的过快上涨，为提高苹果种植收益营造良好成本环境。

Abstract:

Based on the comparable cost and benefit data of apple planting in Shandong province from 1998 to 2015, this paper empirically analyzed the factors affecting the earning of apple planting from two perspectives of sensitivity and contribution rate. Taking the actual price per fifty kilograms products, the yield per unit area, the actual material and service fee per unit area as independent variables, and the actual net earnings per unit area as the dependent variable, this paper empirically analyzed the factors affecting the earning of apple planting in Shandong Province by using unit root test, Engle-Granger co-integration test and contribution rate analysis. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the apple planting earning was most sensitive to the actual price per fifty kilograms products; followed by the yield per unit area, and the lowest was the actual material and service fee per unit area. The contribution rate analysis indicated that the actual price per fifty kilograms products made the greatest contribution to the apple planting earning in Shandong Province, the second was the yield per unit area, and the lowest was the actual material and service fee per unit area. The main influencing factor of apple planting earning in Shandong Province was the actual price per fifty kilograms products. The second influence factor of apple planting earning was the yield per unit area. The influence of the material and service fee per unit area on apple planting earning was less than the actual price per fifty kilograms products and the yield per unit area. Accordingly, effective measures should be taken to extend the apple industry chain, such as establishing and improving the mechanism of apple futures trading to avoid the risk of price fluctuations, speeding up the renovation and improvement of inefficient apple orchards to improve the apple orchard infrastructure, accelerating the development and popularization of apple planting technology to increase the yield per unit area, reducing the rapid rise of the cost of materials and services to build up a good cost environment for apple planting in Shandong province.