平衡膳食模式视角下粮食需求预测

BALANCED DIETS FOOD FROM THE ANGLE OF DEMAND FORECASTING

关键词:  平衡膳食模式 标准人消费系数 需求预测 人口结构 粮食转化率

Key words:  balanced diet  coefficient of standard human consumption  demand forecast  population structure  grain conversion rate

摘要:

［目的］随着时代的进步和社会经济的发展，对粮食安全内涵的理解也在逐步深化，粮食安全内涵不仅包括数量方面，还包括营养健康安全，保障居民营养健康成为粮食安全的新时代内涵。基于营养目标的粮食需求研究，建立营养—消费—生产的粮食生产模式，对引导居民合理健康消费和保障粮食安全具有十分重要的意义。［方法］文章首先分析了我国城乡居民营养消费状况，然后基于平衡膳食模式视角，引入标准人消费系数这一概念对我国未来粮食需求进行了更准确的预测。［结果］城镇居民粮食消费已达到高营养目标，但目前农村居民仅达到低营养目标水平，相当于21世纪初的城镇消费水平； 考虑人口结构因素， 2020年和2030年粮食需求总量分别为4.8亿t和5.6亿t，比没有考虑人口结构变化时分别减少8 700万t和2 600万t。［结论］根据分析结果，提出以下几点政策建议：(1)宣传普及营养健康消费知识，引导居民合理膳食；(2)关注人口结构变动，及时调整粮食安全调控机制； (3)优化食品工业的产业机构升级，提高饲料粮转化率。

Abstract:

As time progress and socio-economic development, the connotation of food safety and food security content changed, which includes not only the quantitative aspect, but also the nutrition, health and safety. Studying grain demand based on nutrition goals, and establishing nutrition-production-consumption patterns of food production, have great significance to guide health reasonable consumption and food security. This paper analyzed the nutritional consumption of urban and rural residents in China, introduced the concept of coefficient of standard human consumption based on balanced diets perspective, and predicted China's future food needs. The results showed that: food consumption of town residents had reached high nutrition target, but currently rural residents only were in low nutrition target level, equivalent to 21st century early of town consumption level. Considering population structure factors, total food needs were 480 million tons and 560 million tons in 2020 and 2030, respetively. It proposed some policy recommends, such as extending universal nutrition health consumption knowledge, guiding residents reasonable dietary, adjusting the food safety regulatory mechanism, optimizing the industrial sector to upgrade the food industry, and improving feed conversion rate.