基于Logistic模型的东北地区粮食生产能力影响因素研究——以宾县为例

ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE MECHANISM OF FOOD PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN NORTHEAST BASED ON LOGISTIC MODEL——IN BIN COUNTY FOR CASE

关键词:  粮食生产能力 影响机制 Logistic模型 自然因素 社会经济

Key words:  food production capacity  influence mechanism  Logistic model  natural factors  social economy

摘要:

［目的］粮食生产能力关系到粮食供给和国家粮食安全，如何提高粮食生产能力是我国亟待解决的问题。文章以宾县为例，通过一定的方法探索粮食生产能力的影响机制，最终提出提高粮食生产能力的合理建议。［方法］利用农户调查数据，借助Logistic模型探讨自然因素和社会经济因素对粮食生产能力的影响特点。［结果］（1）品种技术推广、作物收益对粮食生产能力的影响效应在1%水平上达到显著；（2）生育期变化、土地质量、旱灾、耕作方式对粮食生产能力的影响效应在5%水平上达到显著；（3）温度、降水、冷害及农业生产资料投入对粮食生产能力的影响效应在10%水平上达到显著；（4）温度与降水是否集中在生育期内、出售情况、农业引导政策对粮食生产能力的影响不显著。［结论］针对研究结果，该文提出，可从预防低温冷害、健全水利设施、完善耕地保护制度及加强农业基础设施建设等方面提高粮食生产能力。

Abstract:

The food production capacity is closely related to the effectiveness of food supply and food security, and how to improve food production capacity is an urgent problem to be solved for China. Taking Bin county as an example, the paper explored the impact of grain production capacity mechanism, and ultimately put forward reasonable recommendations to improve the grain production capacity. Using the farmer survey data, Logistic model was used to explore the influence of natural factors and socioeconomic factors on grain production capacity. The results showed that: (1) the effect of breed technology promotion and crop income on grain yield reached significant at the 1% level; (2) the effect of growth state changes, land quality, drought and farming methods on grain yield reached significant at the 5% level; (3) in addition, the effects of temperature, precipitation, cold disaster and agricultural production inputs on grain yield reached significant at the 10% level; (4) on the other hand, the impacts of whether temperature and precipitation focused on growth period, sales and guidance policy's were not significant on grain yield were. The nature factors such as temperature, precipitation, land quality, crop growth period and natural disasters had great impacts on the food production capacity, the level of mechanization, the inputs of agricultural production materials such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides and plastic film, the effective irrigation area and variety technology promotion, crop yield and other factors were important social and economic factors affecting grain production capacity. In order to improve the capacity of food production, some actions were put forward (1) to strengthen the prevention of chilling injury and improve the level of response to chilling injury. As Bin county was located in the higher latitudes, the average annual temperature was lower; (2) to raise the level of irrigation to reduce the impact of drought disasters; (3) to improve the protection system of arable land and land quality, and prevent construction land from occupying cultivated land; (4) to enhance the level of mechanization and strengthen the agricultural infrastructure construction.