基于灰色理论的广西果蔬冷链物流需求及其影响因素预测研究

DEMAND FORECASTING OF COLD CHAIN LOGISTICS OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLE IN GUANGXI PROVINCE BASED ON GREY THEORY

关键词:  果蔬产业 果蔬冷链 物流需求 GM(1,1) 灰色关联分析

Key words:  fruit and vegetable industry  fruit and vegetable cold chain  logistics demand  GM(1,1)  grey relation analysis

摘要:

［目的］通过GM(1,1)模型预测广西果蔬冷链物流需求发展变化，同时利用灰色关联方法分析影响果蔬冷链物流需求变化的相关因素，以期为政府制定发展果蔬冷链物流产业及提升果蔬产业竞争力的相关政策提供量化参考依据。［方法］文章一方面以2010~2015年广西水果及蔬菜的产量数据为依据，建立灰色GM(1,1)模型并进行了预测精度分析，在此基础上应用模型对2016~2020年果蔬冷链物流需求开展预测； 另一方面从经济发展水平、交通运输技术水平、供需水平、冷链支撑条件水平、冷链物流可持续发展水平等5方面构建需求影响因素指标体系，采用灰色关联法提取影响广西果蔬冷链物流需求发展主要因素。［结果］由定量分析可知模型预测精度为均高于98.73%，能够比较精确地预测广西果蔬冷链物流需求量；同时灰色关联分析表明冷链支撑条件水平对果蔬冷链物流需求影响最为显著，其次是冷链物流可持续发展水平与经济发展水平，而供需水平与交通运输技术水平的影响则相对最弱。［结论］该文基于灰色理论的定量分析方法，为研究区域果蔬冷链物流需求发展及辨析其发展过程所受到的环境因素影响提供了一种可行的范式，可以推广应用于相关领域。

Abstract:

In order to formulate relevant policies and development of cold chain logistics industry and enhance the competitiveness of the fruit and vegetable industry, this paper predicted and analyzed the accuracy of the cold chain logistics demand between 2016 and 2020 based on the fruit and vegetable year yield datum from 2010 to 2015 in Guangxi using the grey GM (1,1) model, and then analyzed the factors influencing fruit and vegetable cold chain logistics demand from the level of economic development, transportation technology, supply and demand level, cold chain support level, and system construction factors.The quantitative analysis showed that the prediction accuracy of the models were both above 98. 73%.The impact of supporting conditions of cold chain levels on fruit and vegetable cold chain logistics demand was the most significant, followed by the cold chain logistics sustainable development level and the level of economic development. The impacts of supply and demand and the level of traffic transport technology level were relatively weak in Guangxi.The quantitative analysis method based on grey theory provided a feasible paradigm for the research on vegetables and fruit cold chain logistics development and demand analysis.