我国大麦价格波动特征及其影响因素分析

CHARACTERISTICS AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS OF BARLEY PRICE FLUCTATION IN CHINA

关键词:  大麦 价格波动 HP滤波法 ARCH类模型 脉冲响应函数

Key words:  barely  price fluctuation  HP filter  ARCH-type models  impulse response function

摘要:

［目的］大麦价格剧烈波动会直接影响大麦种植户的生产积极性和大麦产业的平稳发展，研究大麦价格波动特征及其影响因素，有助于提升大麦产业链相关主体识别和应对市场风险的能力，促进大麦产业的健康发展。［方法］文章先采用HP滤波法和ARCH类模型分析了2011年4月至2017年2月我国大麦价格波动特征，然后采用脉冲响应函数分析了我国大麦价格波动影响因素。［结果］我国大麦价格波动存在明显的季节性和周期性，样本期内总体上呈现逐渐下降趋势； 我国大麦价格具有显著的波动集聚性，我国大麦价格具有显著的不对称性； 在该文选择的影响因素中，大麦进口量和国际大麦价格是影响我国大麦价格波动的主要因素。［结论］该文提出必须保障并提高国内大麦合理产能、完善大麦价格监测预警体系、加强国内大麦进口企业整合和推动大麦进口来源多元化的政策建议。

Abstract:

The production enthusiasm of barley farmers and the stable development of barley industry are directly influenced by the violent fluctuation of barley price, it will be beneficial for improving the ability to recognize and cope with market risk of related subject of barley industry chain and promoting the healthy development of barley industry to analyze the characteristic and its influencing factors of barley price fluctuation. The characteristic of China's barley price fluctuation from April 2011 to February 2017 was analyzed by using HP filter and ARCH-type models, and then the influencing factors of barley price were analyzed by using impulse response function. The results showed that, seasonality and periodicity of barley price fluctuation were significant, and there was a gradual downward trend of barley price. The clustered fluctuation of barley price was significant, and barely price fluctuation showed an overt asymmetry feature. Barley price fluctuation was mainly influenced by barley imports and international barley price. Finally, the paper put forward corresponding policy recommendations, such as ensuring and promoting reasonable production capacity of domestic barley, improving monitoring and early-warning system of barley price, strengthening the integration of domestic barley importing enterprises and promoting the diversification of barley import sources.