县域农业资源承载力评价预警系统构建初探

DESIGN OF EVALUATING AND EARLY-WARNING SYSTEM OF THE COUNTY AGRICLUTURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT CARRYING CAPACITY

关键词:  农业资源 承载力 评价预警 县域尺度 绿色发展

Key words:  agricultural resources  carrying capacity  evaluation and early-warning  county-scale  green agriculture

摘要:

［目的］建立农业资源承载能力评价预警系统，加快提升农业资源环境管控能力，是调结构转方式、推进农业绿色发展、建设美丽中国的重大举措。［方法］按照绿色发展理念，以“驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应”（DPSIR）理论为基础构建农业资源承载力理论模型。［结果］以县域耕地和草地为研究对象，提出了基于承载体变化态势的农业资源承载能力评价预警思路；建立了农业资源承载力评价指标与综合集成评价方法、农业资源超载类型和预警等级划分体系；设计了农业资源超载成因解析准则和承载力调控政策创新方向。［结论］基于承载体视角的资源承载力评价预警系统适用于开放的县域农业资源管理；建立健全农业资源监测体系和资源台账，面向评价预警需求长期积累专题数据，突破“数据短板”。

Abstract:

Establishing an evaluation and early-warning system for carrying capacity of agricultural resources and speeding up the management of agricultural resources and environment are the important measures for transferring mode, adjusting structure, promoting the green-agriculture and building a beautiful China. We constructed a theoretical model of agricultural resources carrying capacity based on the "Driving Force-Pressure-State-Influence-Response" (DPSIR) theory. Taking the cultivated land and grassland in counties as the research object，this paper put forward the idea of early-warning of agricultural resources carrying capacity based on the trends of bearing bodies, established an evaluation index system and integrated evaluation methods of agricultural resources carrying capacity. Furthermore, classification methods of overloading and warning levels were constructed. Based on above, we pointed out the analysis principles of overloading origins and put forward an innovation direction of the control policies for agricultural resources carrying capacity. Based on the perspective of the supporting body of the evaluation and early-warning system for resources carrying capacity is applicable to the open county-scale agricultural resources managements. Establishing and improving agricultural resources monitoring and accounting system, and accumulating the thematic data for evaluation and early-warning system in the long-term could break the "data short board".