2000~2015年新疆粮食生产时空演替与驱动因素分析

THE SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERN CHANGES AND DRIVING FACTORS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN XINJIANG PROVINCE

关键词:  粮食生产 时空格局 重心迁移 聚类分析 似无关方程组模型 新疆

Key words:  grain production area  spatial-temporal pattern  migration of gravity center  cluster analysis  seemingly unrelated regression  Xinjiang

摘要:

［目的］分析2000~2015年新疆粮食生产的时空演化特征及驱动因素。［方法］文章采用了重心迁移、聚类分析和似无关方程组模型。［结果］（1）2000~2015年间，粮食总产呈波动上升趋势，播种面积呈现“减少—增加”态势，小麦和玉米是新疆最主要的粮食作物，小麦优势地位略有下降，玉米增势明显，水稻、豆类、薯类亦呈下降趋势；（2）“北牧南耕”传统农业格局已被打破，形成天山南北坡两个粮食主产区，人均粮食占有量区域差异增大，未来“北粮南运”趋势可能进一步增强；（3）新疆粮食主产区相邻单元空间趋同性增强，部分粮食作物空间集聚特征逐渐凸显，玉米最显著，小麦、水稻次之，豆类、薯类不明显；（4）似无关方程组回归结果显示，要素投入、社会经济、资源环境、技术水平和市场要素是影响新疆粮食作物生产空间格局变化的主要因素。［结论］为优化粮食生产布局，需要调整不同作物种植结构，适度发展规模经营，加强技术推广应用，同时加强支农政策力度和政策引导。

Abstract:

Based on the migration of gravity center, cluster analysis and seemingly unrelated regression, this paper analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of grain production in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that: (1) Since 2000, the amount of grain production increased with fluctuations, and sown area experienced a wave of "descent-ascent", wheat and corn were the main grain crops, the advantage of wheat fell slightly, corn grew significantly, but rice, beans and potato showed a downward trend. (2) Traditional agricultural structure with "animal husbandry-based in north, farm-based in south" was broken, and the main grain-producing areas had been forming in northern and southern slopes of Tianshan, the regional differences of per capita grain increased, and the development trend of "grain transfer from the north to the south" increased. (3) Space convergence of adjacent unit space in major grain-producing areas became more significant, some crops had significant characteristics of spatial cluster, corn had remarkable spatial concentration, wheat and rice toke the second place and showed general spatial cluster, and beans and potato showed a weakening trend. (4) Seemingly unrelated regression results showed that social economy, resources and environment, technical merit and market were the main causes that influenced the spatial-temporal pattern changes of grain production. The countermeasures such as adjustment of planting structure, moderate scale management, popularization of agricultural technologies and supporting policies were put forward to optimize the layout of grain production.