四川省粮食生产变化及供给侧结构性调整——基于1985~2016年统计数据

GRAIN PRODUCTION CHANGES AND SUPPLY SIDE STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT IN SICHUAN PROVINCE——BASED ON THE STATISTICS FROM 1985 TO 2016

关键词:  粮食 生产变化 供给侧 结构调整 四川省

Key words:  grain  production change  supply side  structure adjustment  Sichuan province

摘要:

［目的］对四川省粮食生产变化、供给侧结构进行分析，结合政策提出供给侧结构性调整对策，为四川省粮食供给侧结构改革提供理论依据。［方法］采用数理统计法和比较分析法，应用 Excel软件对1985~2016年四川省粮食总产和主要粮食作物产量、粮食单产和主要粮食作物单位产量、粮食总播种面积和主要粮食作物播种面积、人口数量等数据信息进行系统化整理，统计和比较分析四川省粮食生产的动态变化及其供给侧结构特征。［结果］（1）总产量基本稳定在3000~3500万t之间， 32年间增产23年，减产9年。近11年来单产连续增长，变化幅度范围为4218.9~5397.5kg/hm2，涨幅为21.8%。播种面积近年来基本稳定在640万hm2。（2）玉米的总产量增产贡献最大，中稻在减产中份额最多，小麦的产量连年持续减少，豆类的产量总体持续增加，薯类产量增加多于减少。全年粮食以及中稻和玉米在2016年单产水平达到最高，其中玉米增幅最大，其次为薯类。几种主要的粮食作物播种面积占比为95%~99%。中稻占比最大，其次是小麦，两者占比高达50%左右。其他作物播种面积占比逐渐增加。（3）口粮总消费量总体呈现下降特征，与粮食总产量相比，足以满足口粮需求； 但饲料和酿酒用粮需求缺口较大，需要从省外调入，调入品种主要是玉米、小麦和杂粮； 全省粮食供求形势产不足需、转化用粮缺口较大。居民粮食消费由主要满足量的需求升级为注重满足质的需求。［结论］（1）粮食总产量总体平稳波动增长。总产量变化因素中，单产贡献率大于面积贡献率；（2）粮食单产总体逐步提高，全年粮食以及中稻、玉米单产水平突破了历史水平，单产受中稻单产影响最大；（3）粮食作物播种面积基本稳定。中稻和小麦占比最高。玉米、薯类、豆类播种面积逐年增加；（4）口粮总消费量整体减少，饲料和酿酒用粮缺口较大，全省粮食供求紧张、转化用粮缺口较大。城乡居民粮食消费急需由量到质升级。

Abstract:

Based on the data of total grain output and main food crop production, grain yield per unit area, total grain sown area, planting area and population of major grain crops in Sichuan province from 1985 to 2016, this paper analyzed the dynamic changes of food production in Sichuan province, studied the structural characteristics of the supply side using the mathematical statistics and comparative analysis, and then put forward the countermeasures and suggestions on the structural adjustment of the grain supply side in Sichuan province. The research showed that (1) The overall grain output of Sichuan province showed a stable overall performance. The annual output was basically stable at between 30 million t and 35 million t except for individual years. The output of grain increased 23 years, the output reduced by 9 years and the continuous production increase time was 2~8 years. The overall change in grain yield showed a clear upward trend ranging from 4218.9 kg/hm2 (1988) to 5397.5 kg/hm2 (2016). In the past 11 years, the grain yield continued to grow by 21.8%. The sown area of grain crops in the whole province basically remained stable at 6.4 million hectares in recent years. (2) The change of total grain output in Sichuan province contributed the most to the increase of maize yield; rice was reduced the largest , and the output of wheat continued to decrease, the output of beans continued to increase, while potato increased more than the decrease. Annual grain and medium-grain and corn yields exceeded the historical level and reached new height, of which the largest increase was corn, followed by potato. The sown area of several major food crops accounted for 95%~99%. The proportion of sown area of corn, potato and beans increased gradually, showing a complementary trend with that of wheat and middle rice. (3) The overall consumption of rations had a declining characteristic as a whole, which was enough to meet the demand for rations as compared with the total output of grain. However, there was a big gap in demand for feed and wine for brewing. The urban and rural residents were in urgent need of upgrading their food consumption, shifting from the demand of main satisfaction to the demand of pursuing efficient and quality. It concluded that: (1) Among the factors of total grain output in Sichuan province, the contribution rate of yield per unit area was larger than the area contribution rate, and the area reduction effect was lower than the yield increase effect. (2) With the development of science and technology and the increase of material inputs, the level of grain yield gradually increased. The annual grain output and the medium grain and corn yields exceeded the historical level. (3) The sown area of grain crops was basically stable. Medium rice and wheat accounted for the highest proportion. Corn, potatoes, beans planted area increased year by year. (4) As a whole, the total food consumption decreased overall, the gap in demand for feedstuffs and winemaking was large, and the province's food supply and demand situation was not enough. The gap in food conversion was relatively large. The urban and rural residents needed to upgrade their food consumption from quantity to quality.