中国马铃薯区域分布影响因素分析

INFLUENCING FACTORS OF POTATO PLANTING SPATIAL STRUCTURE IN CHINA

关键词:  马铃薯 区域分布 影响因素 主成分回归 优势区

Key words:  potato  regional distribution  influencing factors  principal component regression  advantage area

摘要:

［目的］在对全国马铃薯主产区进行调研的基础上，结合国家马铃薯产业技术体系相关调研资料、全国农产品成本收益数据和国家气象信息中心标准气象站相关数据等，从气候、技术、经济、政策4个方面确定11个指标对中国16个省（区、市）马铃薯分布的影响因素进行测算。［方法］运用主成分回归分析法，将影响中国马铃薯区域分布的11个因素划归为自然信息、外部信息、科技信息和收益信息。［结果］（1）在自然条件方面，中原二季作区和西北一季区具有自然优势；（2）在机械化利用与政策促进方面，西北一季区、中原二季作区和西南一二季混作区较为主动；（3）在科技应用方面，西北一季区和西南一二季混作区效率相对较高；（4）在种植收益方面，中原二季作区、西北一季区和西南一二季混作区具有明显优势。［结论］中原二季作区和北方一季作区等马铃薯传统优势产区仍然具有较大的比较优势，西南一二季混作区后发势头明显，并根据结论提出相应政策建议。

Abstract:

Based on the survey of the main potato producing areas in the country, the relevant research data of the national potato industry technology system, the national agricultural cost-benefit data and the data of the standard meteorological station of the National Meteorological Information Center, this paper analyzed influencing factors of the potato planting distribution from 11 indicators in four aspects in 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). The 11 influencing factors of the potato planting distribution in China were classified as natural information, external information, scientific information and income information by using component regression analysis. The results showed that (1) Central double cropping cultivated area and northwestern single cropping cultivated area had natural advantages in natural conditions; (2) Northwestern single cropping cultivated area, central double cropping cultivated area and southwestern single and double cropping mixed cultivated area were active in aspect of mechanized utilization and policy promotion; (3) Northwestern single cropping cultivated area and southwestern single and double cropping mixed cultivated area had relatively high efficiency in application of science and technology; (4) Central double cropping cultivated area, northwestern single cropping cultivated area and southwestern single and double cropping mixed cultivated area had obvious advantages in planting benefit. As the traditional dominant potato producing areas, the central double cropping cultivated area and the northern single cropping cultivated area still had comparative advantages. The southwestern single and double cropping mixed cultivated area had significant momentum afterwards. Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations were put forward.