中国省域农业现代化水平评价及其影响因素的空间计量分析

EVALUATION OF AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION LEVEL IN CHINA'S PROVINCES AND THE ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCING FACTORS BASED ON SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS

关键词:  农业现代化 熵权TOPSIS 评价 空间计量 面板数据

Key words:  agricultural modernization  TOPSIS  evaluation  spatial econometrics  Panel data

摘要:

［目的］对各地区农业现代化的评价以及其影响因素的分析有利于各地区把握自身的农业现代化水平并制定相应的改革措施。［方法］文章在文献分析的基础上确定了农业现代化评价的4个维度、13个指标，然后运用熵权TOPSIS法对我国部分省域2008~2015年的农业现代化水平进行量化评价，最后结合空间计量分析进行实证研究。［结果］得到了我国农业现代化分布的空间格局，并对农业现代化发展与产业结构、基础建设、农业固定资产投入之间的关系进行了检验。［结论］我国农业现代化发展呈现较强的空间集聚性，我国东部地区、中部地区、西藏、新疆地区的农业现代化程度较高，西部地区，特别是中西部交接地带的农业现代化程度较低，人均固定资产投入以及基础设施建设对农业现代化发展有显著正影响，不能盲目追求降低第一产业比重等结论，并从区域政策支持、农业示范中心城市的设立、产业结构、固定资产投入、基础设施建设等方面为我国的农业发展提供政策建议。

Abstract:

The issue of agriculture, rural areas and farmers is a key related to the social stability of the people. To realize the agricultural modernization has always been an urgent desire of the Party and the people. The Central Committee of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the document on the modernization of agriculture for several years. The party and the state attached great importance to China's agricultural development. Agricultural modernization is one of the prerequisites for achieving a comprehensive well-off. Evaluation of agricultural modernization is an important measure to evaluate the level of agricultural development in a region according to scientific methods. The evaluation of agricultural modernization in different regions and the analysis of its influencing factors will help grasp their modernization level of agricultural and formulate corresponding reform measures. Based on the literature analysis, this paper defined four dimensions of agricultural production efficiency and other thirteen indexes of agricultural modernization evaluation, and then used the entropy weight TOPSIS method to evaluate the modernization level of agricultural in some provinces and regions in China from 2008 to 2015. Finally, empirical research was carried out combined with spatial econometric analysis. It obtained the spatial pattern of agricultural modernization in China, and tested the relationship among the agricultural modernization development, industrial structure, infrastructure construction and agricultural fixed assets investment. It concluded that China's agricultural modernization had a strong spatial agglomeration. The Region of higher degree of agricultural modernization concentrated the Eastern region, Central region and Xinjiang, Xizang of China. The Western region, especially between the Central and Western regions was the lower degree of agriculture modernization. The investment of per capita fixed assets investment and infrastructure construction had a significant positive impact on the development of agricultural modernization, and cannot pursue the reduction of the proportion of the primary industry blindly and so on. It put some suggestions, such as paying more attention on the western development and the rise of the middle process in the border area of agricultural development, constructing agricultural regional center to promote the development of agriculture around the city, optimizing the layout of fusion development, encourage industrial innovation combining with regional advantages and the development of fine agriculture, strengthening rural infrastructure construction especially the transformation hardening of road traffic to improve rural road traffic environment.