我国玉米主产省自然灾害灾情分析

COMPRERHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN MAIZE PRODUCTION PROVINCES OF CHINA

关键词:  玉米种植 风险评估 自然灾害 空间变化 灰度重心模型

Key words:  maize cultivation  natural disasters  risk assessment  spatial variation  gray centroid model

摘要:

［目的］我国是一个多灾多难的农业大国，自然灾害给玉米生产带来重大损失，全面梳理我国各玉米主产省的自然风险，可为农业经营提供参考，有利于保障粮食安全。［方法］文章以玉米相对气象产量为研究基础，采用气象减产率和气象产量减产变异系数两个指标对各玉米主产省的受灾情况进行评估，使用灾损率和灾害异常指数对主产省主要灾种进行识别评价，最后通过灰度重心模型对水旱灾情的空间变动情况进行分析。该文选取地跨中国三大玉米带的11个玉米主产省份为研究对象，从全国和省际两个角度进行了对比分析。［结果］自然灾害对我国玉米种植的威胁较大，各主产省份的风险度高于全国平均水平，产量波动较大。从灾种情况来看，我国最主要的农业灾害有水灾、旱灾、风雹灾和冷冻灾4种，各玉米主产省受水、旱灾害的影响最为普遍，受旱灾的影响最大，且近年来其影响有扩大趋势。从空间尺度上看，我国水、旱灾害的空间分布呈东北—西南一线，和我国镰刀弯玉米带有很大的重合部分，给我国玉米种植的防汛抗旱工作带来了很大的挑战。［结论］自然灾害对我国玉米种植造成很大隐患，必须加强玉米防灾减灾体系建设，提升玉米灾情综合防控能力。

Abstract:

China is an important agricultural country where natural disasters occurs frequently. Natural disasters have brought great losses to corn production of China. So it is quite necessary to comprehensively summarize the natural risks of major corn producing provinces in China, so as to provide a reference for agricultural management and food security. In this paper, the relative meteorological yield of maize was selected as the research basis, and the two indicators such as meteorological yield reduction and meteorological yield reduction coefficient of variation were used to assess the disaster situation of the maize provinces. In addition, disaster index and index of disastrous disaster were used to identify and evaluate the main disaster-causing types in the main corn production provinces in China. Finally, the spatial variation of floods and droughts disasters was analyzed through the gray center of gravity model. The 3 major maize belts of China were North east maize belt, Huang-huai-hai maize belt, and the South east maize belt. The 11 main maize production provinces were Hebei province, Shanxi province, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning province, Jilin province, Heilongjiang province, Shandong province, Henan province, Sichuan province, Yunnan province, and Shaanxi province. The results showed that natural disasters greatly threatened the corn planting. The degree of the risk of each producing province was higher than that of the national average level. There were four kinds of major disasters in the production province in China, i.e., floods, droughts, hail and freezing disaster. Drought affected the production provinces most, which has an expansion trend in recent years. From the perspective of spatial scale, the spatial distribution of flood and drought disaster was is in line with the northeast-northeast, which had a great overlap with the sickle-bend corn area. Natural disasters caused a great hidden danger to maize planting, so it was necessary to strengthen the construction of maize disaster prevention and mitigation system, so as to enhance the comprehensive prevention and control disaster ability.