区域玉米生产成本影响因素的实证分析

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON INFLUENCING FACTORS OF CORN PRODUCTION COST IN DIFFERENT REGIONS

关键词:  玉米 区域生产成本 对数线性模型 单位根检测 协整检验

Key words:  maize  regional production costs  logarithm linear model  unit root test  co-integration test

摘要:

［目的］运用1978~2016年全国各省玉米生产成本数据，对影响区域玉米生产成本变化的主要因素进行实证分析，并提出优化区域玉米生产成本的对策分析。［方法］将全国20个玉米种植省份划分为5个区域，在分析区域玉米生产成本演变特征的基础上，运用双对数线性回归模型，采用ADF单位根检测和Engle-Granger两步法协整检验法，对影响区域玉米生产成本的主要因素进行实证分析。［结果］物质资料投入、租赁作业投入、劳动力投入和生产规模是影响区域玉米生产成本变化的主要因素，其中，物质资料投入、租赁作业投入和劳动力投入与之呈正相关关系，生产规模则与之呈负相关关系；不同变量对不同区域玉米生产成本的影响程度有所不同，劳动力投入是影响程度最大的因素。［结论］劳动力投入和物质资料投入对全国各区玉米生产成本均产生显著影响，租赁作业投入和生产规模则主要对北方产区产生显著影响，对南方产区影响并不显著。据此，建议扩大玉米生产规模化程度；提高物质资料投入效率；优化农机具使用补贴结构。

Abstract:

Based on the maize production cost data of all provinces in China from 1978 to 2016, 20 maize planting provinces in China were divided into 5 regions, and then the evolvement law of maize production costs in 5 regions was analyzed. ADF unit root Detection and Engle-Granger two-step co-integration test were used to build a double logarithm linear regression model and analyze the main influencing factors of corn production cost in the 5 different regions. The results showed that: the material inputs, labor inputs, mechanical operation input and production scale were the main factors for the change of production cost in different maize regions. Among them, the material inputs, labor inputs and the mechanical operation input had a significant positive correlation with the production cost. The labor inputs was the most influential factor. The production scale had a negatively correlated with the production cost. The labor inputs and material inputs had a significant impact on the production costs of maize in all regions in China. The mechanical operation inputs and the production scale mainly had a significant influence in north China. Accordingly, it recommended expanding the scale of corn production, improving the efficiency of material inputs, and optimizing the use of subsidies for agricultural machinery structure.