江苏省农业碳排放动态变化影响因素分析及趋势预测

INFLUENCING FACTORS AND TREND PREDICTION ON DYNAMIC CHANGE OF AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

关键词:  农业碳排放 影响因素 多元回归 灰色预测 江苏省

Key words:  agricultural carbon emission  influence factors  multiple regression  grey analysis  Jiangsu province

摘要:

［目的］在分析2000~2015年江苏省农业碳排放的基础上，描述其影响因素，并预测2016~2030年江苏省的农业碳排放量。［方法］运用农业碳排放估算方式计算2000~2015年江苏省农业碳排放量，并运用多元回归模型分解碳排放的影响因素，最后利用灰色预测模型预测2020~2030年江苏省的农业碳排放量。［结果］2000~2015年江苏省农业碳排放量主要呈现三段式变化。2000~2003年，表现为小幅度的先增长后下降趋势；2004~2010年，农业碳排放量呈现快速增长趋势；2011~2015年，农业碳排放总量开始缓步减少。对影响因素的分析结果表明，江苏省农业碳排放的主要影响因素来源于经济发展方面，如单位农业能源消耗、农业人口人均GDP等表征指标。农业科研人员数量对碳排放量减少起到一定的作用。预计2016~2030年江苏省农业碳排放量会持续缓步下降趋势。［结论］2000~2015年江苏省农业碳排放量主要呈现三段式变化。2000~2003年，表现为小幅度的先增长后下降趋势；2004~2010年，农业碳排放量呈现快速增长趋势；2011~2015年，农业碳排放总量开始缓步减少。预测2016~2030年间将呈持续缓步下降趋势。

Abstract:

Based on the analysis of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu in 2000~2015, the influencing factors were described and the agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu province in 2020~2030 were predicted. Agricultural carbon emission in Jiangsu province was calculated by using agricultural carbon emission estimation method, and the influence factors of carbon emission were decomposed by multiple regression model. Finally, the agricultural carbon emissions of Jiangsu province in 2020~2030 were predicted by the grey forecasting model in 2000~2015. Agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu province mainly showed two stages of change in 2000~2015. It showed a slight increase first and then decrease in 2000~2004; There has been a substantial increase in 2005~2015. It showed a slow decline trend until 2011. The analysis of the influencing factors showed that the main influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu come from economic development, such as unit agricultural energy consumption, agricultural population per capita GDP and other indicators. The number of agricultural researchers plays a role in reducing carbon emissions. It is estimated that the agricultural carbon emissions in Jiangsu will continue to decline slowly in 2020~2030. As a major agricultural province in China, the research and prediction of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province has a certain reference for the study of agricultural carbon emissions in other regions of China. By increasing the number of agricultural researchers and innovative agricultural production, we can achieve the goal of agricultural emission reduction. At the same time, it plays a certain role in accelerating the development of China′s agriculture into the low carbon development model.