华北平原农地利用变化及驱动力分析

ANALYSIS ON AGRICULTURAL LAND USE CHANGES AND DRIVING FORCES IN NORTH CHINA PLAIN

关键词:  农地利用变化驱动力灰色关联法华北平原

Key words:  farmland  use changes  driving force  grey correlation method  North China Plain

摘要:

［目的］农地资源是人类赖以生存、国民经济和社会发展的基础，随着我国城镇化和人口数量的不断扩张，人地矛盾日益显著。探讨农地利用的变化情况其驱动力对于促进农地的可持续利用及保障粮食安全具有十分的现实意义。［方法］文章以华北平原地区为例，在分析农地利用变化的基础上，选取驱动力指标，通过灰色关联法分析其关联程度。［结果］2004~2016年间华北平原农地利用程度变化率均大于0，农地利用程度综合指数和复种指数呈下降的趋势。影响华北平原农地变化的各个驱动力从大到小依次为：人口、城市化率、农业科学技术、年平均气温、GDP、日照时数、农业机械总动力和年降雨量。关联度介于065~085的有人口、城市化率、农业科学技术和年平均气温。人为因素是主要的驱动力。［结论］华北平原农地利用受各种驱动力指标的共同影响，今后应因地制宜，在自然因素不可控的基础上，加强人为因素的调控，保障农地利用的同时促进社会经济的协调发展。

Abstract:

Agricultural land resources are the basis for human survival, national economy and social development. With the continuous expansion of urbanization and the population in China, the contradiction between human and land is increasingly significant. Exploring the changes in the use of agricultural land and its driving force are important for promoting sustainable use of agricultural land and ensuring food security.The article takes the North China Plain as an example. The analysis of changes in the use of agricultural land the selected driving force index, and the degree of correlation are analyzed by the grey correlation method.The results showed that the change rate of the degree of agricultural land use in the North China Plain between 2004 and 2016 was greater than 0, and the comprehensive index of farmland utilization and the multiple crop index showed a downward trend. The driving forces affecting the change of agricultural land in North China Plain are: population, urbanization rate, agricultural science and technology, annual mean temperature, GDP, sunshine hours, total agricultural machinery power, and annual rainfall. The correlation between 0.65~0.85 is the population, urbanization rate, agricultural science and technology, and annual average temperature, and human factors are the main driving force.The use of agricultural land in the North China Plain is affected by various driving force indicators. In the future, we should adjust measures to local conditions. On the basis of uncontrollable natural factors, the adjustment of human factors should be strengthened to ensure the coordinated development of social economy while ensuring the use of farmland.