基于二元Logistic模型的贫困山区农村土地流转意愿影响因素研究*——源于河北省贫困山区县的调研样本

THE INFLUENCE FACTORS OF RURAL LAND CIRCULATION INTENTION IN POVERTY STRICKEN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS BASED ON BINARY LOGISTIC MODEL*——FROM THE SURVEY SAMPLES OF 19 PROVINCIAL LEVEL POVERTY STRICKEN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES IN HEBEI PROVINCE

关键词:  贫困山区流转意愿匹配二元Logistic模型河北

Key words:  poverty stricken mountainous areas  circulation intention  matching  binary Logistic model  Hebei

摘要:

目的］农村土地流转是促进贫困地区经济发展的重要途径，尤其对于山区的脱贫具有重要意义，然而目前贫困山区农地流转过程中还存在农户流转意愿和流转行为不匹配、对土地流转政策理解不到位等突出问题，迫切需要针对贫困山区农村土地流转展开相关深入分析。［方法］文章基于河北省贫困山区县的调研数据，运用二元Logistic回归模型从农户自身情况、农户家庭情况、农户对土地政策认知、农户对土地流转期望等方面建立指标体系，实证分析土地流转意愿的影响因素，并利用交叉分析判断流转意愿和流转行为的匹配情况。［结果］贫困山区农村土地流转意愿影响因素的作用机制较为复杂且具有一定的特殊性，依据显著性水平将其影响因素分为3个层次，即外围、较强和显著性。［结论］建议通过重点完善贫困山区农村社会保障体系； 培育完善农村土地流转市场，做好信息服务定位； 深化土地相关政策的宣传和解释； 拓展农村土地流转纠纷调解渠道，丰富调节形式等举措促进贫困山区农村土地流转，提高土地利用效率。

Abstract:

The rural land circulation is an important way to promote the economic development in poverty stricken areas, and it is especially important for the mountainous areas to get rid of poverty. However, there are still some outstanding problems such as mismatch between circulation intention and circulation behavior of peasant households, and incomplete understanding of land circulation policy. It is urgent to carry out in depth analysis on the rural land circulation in poverty stricken mountainous areas. Based on the survey data of 19 provincial level poverty stricken mountain counties in Hebei province, this article established the index system from the farmers' own characteristics, farmers' family status, farmers' cognition of land policy and farmers' expectation of land circulation by using the binary Logistic regression model. Then it empirically analyzed the influence factors of land circulation intention and used cross analysis to determine the matching of the circulation intention and the circulation behavior. The results showed that the mechanism of the influence factors of rural land circulation intention in poverty stricken mountainous areas was complex with certain particularity. According to the level of significance, the influence factors were divided into three levels, namely, peripheral, strong and significant. It concluded that it should make some measures, such as improving the rural social security system in poverty stricken mountainous areas, cultivating and perfecting land circulation market, improving the orientation of information services, deepening the publicity and interpretation of land related policies, expanding rural land circulation disputes channel and enriching regulation form, which were beneficial to promote the circulation of rural land in poverty stricken mountainous areas and improve the efficiency of land use.