影响山区耕地流转因素及对策分析*——以重庆市江津区438个农户为例

EFFECT FACTORS OF THE MOUNTAIN AREA CULTIVATED LAND CIRCULATION AND STRATEGY ANALYSIS*——TAKING 438 FARMERS IN JIANGJIN DISTRICT OF CHONGQING AS EXAMPLES

关键词:  耕地流转多元线性回归模型现代农业新型经营主体江津

Key words:  cultivated land circulation  multiple regression model  modern agriculture  new business entity  Jiangjin

摘要:

［目的］探析耕地流转影响因素，以期为推进研究区耕地流转，促进现代农业发展以及践行精准扶贫，实现耕地增产，农民增收提供科学参考。［方法］以重庆市江津区6个行政村438户为例，借助多元线性回归模型定量分析耕地流转影响因素。［结果］总人口、劳动力人数、农业收入占比、文化程度、了解耕地流转占比与流转规模的比分别为1：0482、1： 0669、1： 0932、1：821、1： 0769。总人口最小； 劳均年龄、距道路距离、距乡镇距离、耕作半径、坡度与流转规模呈负相关，比分别为1：-0693、1：-0592、1：-0175、1：-0725、1：-0481。［结论］模型显示农业收入占比的正向相关性最大，耕作半径的负向相关性最大。针对影响因素提出调整产业结构，发挥区域优势； 宣传耕地流转政策，鼓励发展现代农业； 加强基础设施建设，吸引新型经营主体，因地制宜，实行差别化耕地流转等建议。

Abstract:

It is of great significance to explore the effect factors of cultivated land circulation. And it can also promote the transfer of cultivated land, achieve targeted poverty alleviation, and provide scientific references for production increase and farmer′s income increase. Taking 438 households of 6 villages in JiangJin, ChongQing as examples, the influence factors of cultivated land circulation were analyzed by using Multiple Regression Model. The results showed that the ratios of total population, labor population, agricultural income and level of education were 1:0.482, 1:0.669, 1:0.932, 1:821, 1:0.769, respectively. The proportion of agricultural income was the largest part and the total population was the smallest part. The average age of the labor, the distance from the road, the distance from the villages and towns, field plot radius, slope, were negatively correlated with the circulation scale. The proportion rates were 1:0.693, 1:0.592, 1:0.175, 1: 0.725, 1: 0.481, respectively. Field plot radius showed the largest negative correlation. To adjust the industrial structure and give full play to regional advantages, we should propagandize cultivated land circulation policy and encourage the development of modern agriculture. We also should strengthen infrastructure construction, attract new types of business entities and local conditions, and carry out suggestions about the transfer of arable land.