乌鲁木齐市建设用地对经济增长的贡献及Logistic曲线极限点估计研究

CONTRIBUTION OF CONSTRUCTION LAND TO THE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ESTIMATION OF LIMIT POINT OF LOGISTIC CURVE IN URUMQI CITY

关键词:  建设用地经济增长贡献率Logistic曲线乌鲁木齐

Key words:  construction land  economic growth  contribution rate  logistic curve  Urumqi city

摘要:

［目的］为提高乌鲁木齐市各生产要素的利用效率，明确经济发展模式，同时也为促进土地资源节约集约利用提供科学依据。［方法］基于C-D生产函数，以2005—2015年乌鲁木齐市统计数据为样本，借助EViews60和SPSS200软件测算出建设用地对经济增长的贡献率以及Logistic曲线极限点。［结果］（1）资本投入要素对经济增长的贡献率（5672%）最大，建设用地投入要素贡献（3281%）次之，然后是劳动力投入要素贡献（1325%），技术进步投入要素贡献（-278%）最小，但拥有很大的挖掘空间； （2）建设用地对经济增长的Logistic曲线极限点位于第二、三产业产值为1 522亿元处，对应2011年产值， 2005—2011年建设用地对经济增长的贡献呈递增趋势， 2011年之后贡献速度呈递减趋势，逐渐趋于平缓。［结论］建设用地对经济增长的驱动作用是有限的，只有通过技术创新才能实现经济发展模式由“依资本型”向“技术驱动型”转变。

Abstract:

This study was to improve the utilization efficiency of each production factor in Urumqi City, define the mode of economic development, and also provide a scientific basis for promoting the intensive utilization of land resources. Based on the C D production function, the paper calculated the contribution rate of construction land to economic growth and the limit point of Logistic curve by using the statistical data of Urumqi from 2005 to 2015 years as samples and by means of EViews6.0 and SPSS20.0 software. The results showed that:（1）Capital contribution to economic growth rate was 56.72% which was the largest and the construction land input factor contribution was 32.81%, then the labor input factor contribution was 13.25%, technical progress contribution of input elements was -2.78% which was the smallest, but with great potentialities; （2）The limit point of logistic curve of the construction land for economic growth lied at the output value of the second and third industries of 152 billion 200 million yuan, corresponding to the output value of 2011, The construction land to the economic growth presented increased trend from 2005 to 2011, and after 2011 contribution rate showed a decreasing trend, gradually gentle. The driving role of construction land in economic growth was limited, and only through technological innovation could the mode of economic development change from "Capital type" to "Technology driven type".