气候变化对新疆苹果种植气候适宜性的影响

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON APPLE PLANTINGCLIMATIC SUITABILITY IN XINJIANG

关键词:  气候变化关键气候因子区划指标苹果种植气候适宜性新疆

Key words:  climate change  factor of critical climate  zoning indicators  climatic suitability of apple planting  Xinjiang

摘要:

［目的］为适应气候变化，充分发挥新疆种植苹果有利的农业气候条件，规避不利气象灾害的影响，科学制定新疆苹果发展规划提供科学依据。［方法］文章利用新疆102个气象台站1961—2015年逐日平均气温、最低气温资料，采用线性趋势分析、累积距平、t检验以及ArcGIS空间插值技术方法，对影响苹果种植的关键气候因子（年平均气温、日最低气温≤-20℃日数、6—8月平均气温、1月平均气温）时空变化特征进行分析，结合苹果种植气候适宜性区划指标，研究了气候变化对新疆苹果种植气候适宜性及其分布区域的影响。［结果］新疆年平均气温、6—8月平均气温和1月平均气温的空间分布总体呈现南疆高，北疆低； 平原和盆地高，山区低的特点； 日最低气温≤-20℃日数空间分布呈现北疆多，南疆少； 山区多，平原和盆地少的格局。［结论］近55年，新疆年平均气温、6—8月平均气温和1月平均气温显著升高，冬季日最低气温≤-20℃日数显著减少，并且上述各要素分别于1979年、1985年和1997年发生了突变。受气候变暖的影响， 1997年后较其之前，新疆苹果适宜种植区明显减小，次适宜种植区明显扩大，不适宜种植区也有所减小。气候变暖对新疆苹果种植既有利也有弊，但总体弊大于利。因此，各地须根据当地气候特点及其变化情况，调整苹果发展规划和种植区域，并针对制约苹果种植的不利气候条件，采取趋利避害的技术措施，科学应对，促进苹果生产的持续稳定发展。

Abstract:

In order to adapt to climate change, give full play to favorable agro climatic conditions for Apple planting in Xinjiang and avoid adverse weather disasters, It would provide scientific basis to scientifically formulate the development plan of apples in Xinjiang. Based on the data of daily mean temperature and minimum temperature from 102 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2015, the fundamental spatial temporal change characteristic of key climatic factors（annual mean temperature, days of lowest temperature below -20℃, mean temperature from Jun. to Aug. and mean temperature in Jan.）affecting apple planting were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, T test and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. And the impact of climate change on apple planting climatic suitability and distributed areas were studied by combining with the change characteristics of key climate factor before and after mutation. The main results showed, spatial distribution of above climatic factors had very obvious difference from place to place in Xinjiang, the mean temperature of annual, from Jun. to Aug., and in Jan.generally, they were higher in south than in north, in plain and basin than in mountain regions. The days of lowest temperature below -20℃ were more in north than in south, in mountain regions than in plain and basin. In the background of global warming, the mean temperature of annual，Jun. to Aug., and in Jan.presented significantly increasing trend with the rate of 0.305℃/10a,0.210℃/10a,0242℃/10a in recent 55 years, and they had mutation in 1997 and1979 respectively. The days of lowest temperature below -20℃ presented significantly decreasing trend with the rate of -1.987d /10a and had mutation in 1985. By the climate changes, the apple planting suitable area and unsuitable area decreased, sub suitable area were increased after 1997 than before in Xinjiang region. Under the background of global warming, the climate in Xinjiang has significant warmed in the past 55 years, the resources of the agricultural heat in Xinjiang was good overall to plant characteristic fruit. The research conclusion showed the agricultural climate conditions were advantageous to plant apple. Therefore, according to the local climate characteristics and its change, the apple development planning and planting areas should be adjusted, and avoid the bad meteorological disasters. Finally, scientific plans should be made to promote the stable development of Xinjiang′s apple production and provide a reference basis for the future research.